ART: Distribution-Free and Model-Agnostic Changepoint Detection with Finite-Sample Guarantees

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Hauptverfasser: Cui, Xiaolong, Geng, Haoyu, Wang, Guanghui, Wang, Zhaojun, Zou, Changliang
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Cui, Xiaolong
Geng, Haoyu
Wang, Guanghui
Wang, Zhaojun
Zou, Changliang
author_facet Cui, Xiaolong
Geng, Haoyu
Wang, Guanghui
Wang, Zhaojun
Zou, Changliang
contents We introduce ART, a distribution-free and model-agnostic framework for changepoint detection that provides finite-sample guarantees. ART transforms independent observations into real-valued scores via a symmetric function, ensuring exchangeability in the absence of changepoints. These scores are then ranked and aggregated to detect distributional changes. The resulting test offers exact Type-I error control, agnostic to specific distributional or model assumptions. Moreover, ART seamlessly extends to multi-scale settings, enabling robust multiple changepoint estimation and post-detection inference with finite-sample error rate control. By locally ranking the scores and performing aggregations across multiple prespecified intervals, ART identifies changepoint intervals and refines subsequent inference while maintaining its distribution-free and model-agnostic nature. This adaptability makes ART as a reliable and versatile tool for modern changepoint analysis, particularly in high-dimensional data contexts and applications leveraging machine learning methods.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_04475
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle ART: Distribution-Free and Model-Agnostic Changepoint Detection with Finite-Sample Guarantees
Cui, Xiaolong
Geng, Haoyu
Wang, Guanghui
Wang, Zhaojun
Zou, Changliang
Methodology
Statistics Theory
We introduce ART, a distribution-free and model-agnostic framework for changepoint detection that provides finite-sample guarantees. ART transforms independent observations into real-valued scores via a symmetric function, ensuring exchangeability in the absence of changepoints. These scores are then ranked and aggregated to detect distributional changes. The resulting test offers exact Type-I error control, agnostic to specific distributional or model assumptions. Moreover, ART seamlessly extends to multi-scale settings, enabling robust multiple changepoint estimation and post-detection inference with finite-sample error rate control. By locally ranking the scores and performing aggregations across multiple prespecified intervals, ART identifies changepoint intervals and refines subsequent inference while maintaining its distribution-free and model-agnostic nature. This adaptability makes ART as a reliable and versatile tool for modern changepoint analysis, particularly in high-dimensional data contexts and applications leveraging machine learning methods.
title ART: Distribution-Free and Model-Agnostic Changepoint Detection with Finite-Sample Guarantees
topic Methodology
Statistics Theory
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.04475