Market Integration Pathways for Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Europe
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866917889853882368 |
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| author | Franken, Lukas Zeyen, Elisabeth Angelidis, Orestis Brown, Tom Friedrich, Daniel |
| author_facet | Franken, Lukas Zeyen, Elisabeth Angelidis, Orestis Brown, Tom Friedrich, Daniel |
| contents | Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) can provide constant, reliable electricity and heat with minimal emissions, but high drilling costs and uncertain cost reductions leave their future unclear. We explore scenarios for the future adoption of EGS in a carbon-neutral, multi-sector European energy system. We find that in a net-zero system, heat (co-)generating EGS at current cost can support 20--30 GWth of capacity in Europe, primarily driven by district heating demands. When drilling costs decrease by approximately 60%, EGS becomes competitive in electricity markets, expanding its market opportunity by one order of magnitude. However, the spatially dispersed rollout of district heating contrasts with the confined overlap of high geological potential and low potential for other renewables, which conditions the competitiveness of electricity-generating EGS. This results in a challenge where the majority of EGS market potential depends on pan-European technology learning for cost reductions, emphasising coordination is crucial in stakeholders' efforts to reduce EGS cost. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_06600 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Market Integration Pathways for Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Europe Franken, Lukas Zeyen, Elisabeth Angelidis, Orestis Brown, Tom Friedrich, Daniel Physics and Society Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) can provide constant, reliable electricity and heat with minimal emissions, but high drilling costs and uncertain cost reductions leave their future unclear. We explore scenarios for the future adoption of EGS in a carbon-neutral, multi-sector European energy system. We find that in a net-zero system, heat (co-)generating EGS at current cost can support 20--30 GWth of capacity in Europe, primarily driven by district heating demands. When drilling costs decrease by approximately 60%, EGS becomes competitive in electricity markets, expanding its market opportunity by one order of magnitude. However, the spatially dispersed rollout of district heating contrasts with the confined overlap of high geological potential and low potential for other renewables, which conditions the competitiveness of electricity-generating EGS. This results in a challenge where the majority of EGS market potential depends on pan-European technology learning for cost reductions, emphasising coordination is crucial in stakeholders' efforts to reduce EGS cost. |
| title | Market Integration Pathways for Enhanced Geothermal Systems in Europe |
| topic | Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.06600 |