MEXA-CTP: Mode Experts Cross-Attention for Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction

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Hauptverfasser: Zhang, Yiqing, Liu, Xiaozhong, Murai, Fabricio
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Zhang, Yiqing
Liu, Xiaozhong
Murai, Fabricio
author_facet Zhang, Yiqing
Liu, Xiaozhong
Murai, Fabricio
contents Clinical trials are the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness and safety of drugs for treating diseases. Given the vast design space of drug molecules, elevated financial cost, and multi-year timeline of these trials, research on clinical trial outcome prediction has gained immense traction. Accurate predictions must leverage data of diverse modes such as drug molecules, target diseases, and eligibility criteria to infer successes and failures. Previous Deep Learning approaches for this task, such as HINT, often require wet lab data from synthesized molecules and/or rely on prior knowledge to encode interactions as part of the model architecture. To address these limitations, we propose a light-weight attention-based model, MEXA-CTP, to integrate readily-available multi-modal data and generate effective representations via specialized modules dubbed "mode experts", while avoiding human biases in model design. We optimize MEXA-CTP with the Cauchy loss to capture relevant interactions across modes. Our experiments on the Trial Outcome Prediction (TOP) benchmark demonstrate that MEXA-CTP improves upon existing approaches by, respectively, up to 11.3% in F1 score, 12.2% in PR-AUC, and 2.5% in ROC-AUC, compared to HINT. Ablation studies are provided to quantify the effectiveness of each component in our proposed method.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_06823
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle MEXA-CTP: Mode Experts Cross-Attention for Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction
Zhang, Yiqing
Liu, Xiaozhong
Murai, Fabricio
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Quantitative Methods
Clinical trials are the gold standard for assessing the effectiveness and safety of drugs for treating diseases. Given the vast design space of drug molecules, elevated financial cost, and multi-year timeline of these trials, research on clinical trial outcome prediction has gained immense traction. Accurate predictions must leverage data of diverse modes such as drug molecules, target diseases, and eligibility criteria to infer successes and failures. Previous Deep Learning approaches for this task, such as HINT, often require wet lab data from synthesized molecules and/or rely on prior knowledge to encode interactions as part of the model architecture. To address these limitations, we propose a light-weight attention-based model, MEXA-CTP, to integrate readily-available multi-modal data and generate effective representations via specialized modules dubbed "mode experts", while avoiding human biases in model design. We optimize MEXA-CTP with the Cauchy loss to capture relevant interactions across modes. Our experiments on the Trial Outcome Prediction (TOP) benchmark demonstrate that MEXA-CTP improves upon existing approaches by, respectively, up to 11.3% in F1 score, 12.2% in PR-AUC, and 2.5% in ROC-AUC, compared to HINT. Ablation studies are provided to quantify the effectiveness of each component in our proposed method.
title MEXA-CTP: Mode Experts Cross-Attention for Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Quantitative Methods
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.06823