Sympathy over Polarization: A Computational Discourse Analysis of Social Media Posts about the July 2024 Trump Assassination Attempt

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Zeng, Qingcheng, Liu, Guanhong, Xue, Zhaoqian, Ford, Diego, Voigt, Rob, Hagen, Loni, Li, Lingyao
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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_version_ 1866910787963977728
author Zeng, Qingcheng
Liu, Guanhong
Xue, Zhaoqian
Ford, Diego
Voigt, Rob
Hagen, Loni
Li, Lingyao
author_facet Zeng, Qingcheng
Liu, Guanhong
Xue, Zhaoqian
Ford, Diego
Voigt, Rob
Hagen, Loni
Li, Lingyao
contents On July 13, 2024, at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania, someone attempted to assassinate Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump. This attempt sparked a large-scale discussion on social media. We collected posts from X (formerly known as Twitter) one week before and after the assassination attempt and aimed to model the short-term effects of such a ``shock'' on public opinions and discussion topics. Specifically, our study addresses three key questions: first, we investigate how public sentiment toward Donald Trump shifts over time and across regions (RQ1) and examine whether the assassination attempt itself significantly affects public attitudes, independent of the existing political alignments (RQ2). Finally, we explore the major themes in online conversations before and after the crisis, illustrating how discussion topics evolved in response to this politically charged event (RQ3). By integrating large language model-based sentiment analysis, difference-in-differences modeling, and topic modeling techniques, we find that following the attempt the public response was broadly sympathetic to Trump rather than polarizing, despite baseline ideological and regional disparities.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_09950
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Sympathy over Polarization: A Computational Discourse Analysis of Social Media Posts about the July 2024 Trump Assassination Attempt
Zeng, Qingcheng
Liu, Guanhong
Xue, Zhaoqian
Ford, Diego
Voigt, Rob
Hagen, Loni
Li, Lingyao
Social and Information Networks
Computation and Language
On July 13, 2024, at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania, someone attempted to assassinate Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump. This attempt sparked a large-scale discussion on social media. We collected posts from X (formerly known as Twitter) one week before and after the assassination attempt and aimed to model the short-term effects of such a ``shock'' on public opinions and discussion topics. Specifically, our study addresses three key questions: first, we investigate how public sentiment toward Donald Trump shifts over time and across regions (RQ1) and examine whether the assassination attempt itself significantly affects public attitudes, independent of the existing political alignments (RQ2). Finally, we explore the major themes in online conversations before and after the crisis, illustrating how discussion topics evolved in response to this politically charged event (RQ3). By integrating large language model-based sentiment analysis, difference-in-differences modeling, and topic modeling techniques, we find that following the attempt the public response was broadly sympathetic to Trump rather than polarizing, despite baseline ideological and regional disparities.
title Sympathy over Polarization: A Computational Discourse Analysis of Social Media Posts about the July 2024 Trump Assassination Attempt
topic Social and Information Networks
Computation and Language
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.09950