Automatic selection of the best neural architecture for time series forecasting
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908932139646976 |
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| author | Cao, Qianying Liu, Shanqing Varghese, Alan John Darbon, Jerome Triantafyllou, Michael Karniadakis, George Em |
| author_facet | Cao, Qianying Liu, Shanqing Varghese, Alan John Darbon, Jerome Triantafyllou, Michael Karniadakis, George Em |
| contents | Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications, including weather prediction, healthcare, structural health monitoring, predictive maintenance, energy systems, and financial markets. While models such as LSTM, GRU, Transformers, and State-Space Models (SSMs) have become standard tools in this domain, selecting the optimal architecture remains a challenge. Performance comparisons often depend on evaluation metrics and the datasets under analysis, making the choice of a universally optimal model controversial. In this work, we introduce a flexible automated framework for time series forecasting that systematically designs and evaluates diverse network architectures by integrating LSTM, GRU, multi-head Attention, and SSM blocks. Using a multi-objective optimization approach, our framework determines the number, sequence, and combination of blocks to align with specific requirements and evaluation objectives. From the resulting Pareto-optimal architectures, the best model for a given context is selected via a user-defined preference function. We validate our framework across four distinct real-world applications. Results show that a single-layer GRU or LSTM is usually optimal when minimizing training time alone. However, when maximizing accuracy or balancing multiple objectives, the best architectures are often composite designs incorporating multiple block types in specific configurations. By employing a weighted preference function, users can resolve trade-offs between objectives, revealing novel, context-specific optimal architectures. Our findings underscore that no single neural architecture is universally optimal for time series forecasting. Instead, the best-performing model emerges as a data-driven composite architecture tailored to user-defined criteria and evaluation objectives. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_12215 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Automatic selection of the best neural architecture for time series forecasting Cao, Qianying Liu, Shanqing Varghese, Alan John Darbon, Jerome Triantafyllou, Michael Karniadakis, George Em Machine Learning Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications, including weather prediction, healthcare, structural health monitoring, predictive maintenance, energy systems, and financial markets. While models such as LSTM, GRU, Transformers, and State-Space Models (SSMs) have become standard tools in this domain, selecting the optimal architecture remains a challenge. Performance comparisons often depend on evaluation metrics and the datasets under analysis, making the choice of a universally optimal model controversial. In this work, we introduce a flexible automated framework for time series forecasting that systematically designs and evaluates diverse network architectures by integrating LSTM, GRU, multi-head Attention, and SSM blocks. Using a multi-objective optimization approach, our framework determines the number, sequence, and combination of blocks to align with specific requirements and evaluation objectives. From the resulting Pareto-optimal architectures, the best model for a given context is selected via a user-defined preference function. We validate our framework across four distinct real-world applications. Results show that a single-layer GRU or LSTM is usually optimal when minimizing training time alone. However, when maximizing accuracy or balancing multiple objectives, the best architectures are often composite designs incorporating multiple block types in specific configurations. By employing a weighted preference function, users can resolve trade-offs between objectives, revealing novel, context-specific optimal architectures. Our findings underscore that no single neural architecture is universally optimal for time series forecasting. Instead, the best-performing model emerges as a data-driven composite architecture tailored to user-defined criteria and evaluation objectives. |
| title | Automatic selection of the best neural architecture for time series forecasting |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.12215 |