"Estimating software project effort using analogies": Reflections after 28 years
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autor principal: | |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| Acceso en línea: | |
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| _version_ | 1866910805551742976 |
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| author | Shepperd, Martin |
| author_facet | Shepperd, Martin |
| contents | Background: This invited paper is the result of an invitation to write a retrospective article on a "TSE most influential paper" as part of the journal's 50th anniversary. Objective: To reflect on the progress of software engineering prediction research using the lens of a selected, highly cited research paper and 28 years of hindsight. Methods: The paper examines (i) what was achieved, (ii) what has endured and (iii) what could have been done differently with the benefit of retrospection. Conclusions: While many specifics of software project effort prediction have evolved, key methodological issues remain relevant. The original study emphasised empirical validation with benchmarks, out-of-sample testing and data/tool sharing. Four areas for improvement are identified: (i) stronger commitment to Open Science principles, (ii) focus on effect sizes and confidence intervals, (iii) reporting variability alongside typical results and (iv) more rigorous examination of threats to validity. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_14582 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | "Estimating software project effort using analogies": Reflections after 28 years Shepperd, Martin Software Engineering Background: This invited paper is the result of an invitation to write a retrospective article on a "TSE most influential paper" as part of the journal's 50th anniversary. Objective: To reflect on the progress of software engineering prediction research using the lens of a selected, highly cited research paper and 28 years of hindsight. Methods: The paper examines (i) what was achieved, (ii) what has endured and (iii) what could have been done differently with the benefit of retrospection. Conclusions: While many specifics of software project effort prediction have evolved, key methodological issues remain relevant. The original study emphasised empirical validation with benchmarks, out-of-sample testing and data/tool sharing. Four areas for improvement are identified: (i) stronger commitment to Open Science principles, (ii) focus on effect sizes and confidence intervals, (iii) reporting variability alongside typical results and (iv) more rigorous examination of threats to validity. |
| title | "Estimating software project effort using analogies": Reflections after 28 years |
| topic | Software Engineering |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.14582 |