Log-Gaussian Cox Processes on General Metric Graphs
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866916590607400960 |
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| author | Bolin, David Saduakhas, Damilya Simas, Alexandre B. |
| author_facet | Bolin, David Saduakhas, Damilya Simas, Alexandre B. |
| contents | The modeling of spatial point processes has advanced considerably, yet extending these models to non-Euclidean domains, such as road networks, remains a challenging problem. We propose a novel framework for log-Gaussian Cox processes on general compact metric graphs by leveraging the Gaussian Whittle-Matérn fields, which are solutions to fractional-order stochastic differential equations on metric graphs. To achieve computationally efficient likelihood-based inference, we introduce a numerical approximation of the likelihood that eliminates the need to approximate the Gaussian process. This method, coupled with the exact evaluation of finite-dimensional distributions for Whittle-Matérn fields with integer smoothness, ensures scalability and theoretical rigour, with derived convergence rates for posterior distributions. The framework is implemented in the open-source MetricGraph R package, which integrates seamlessly with R-INLA to support fully Bayesian inference. We demonstrate the applicability and scalability of this approach through an analysis of road accident data from Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia, consisting of over 150,000 road segments. By identifying high-risk road segments using exceedance probabilities and excursion sets, our framework provides localized insights into accident hotspots and offers a powerful tool for modeling spatial point processes directly on complex networks. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2501_18558 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Log-Gaussian Cox Processes on General Metric Graphs Bolin, David Saduakhas, Damilya Simas, Alexandre B. Methodology The modeling of spatial point processes has advanced considerably, yet extending these models to non-Euclidean domains, such as road networks, remains a challenging problem. We propose a novel framework for log-Gaussian Cox processes on general compact metric graphs by leveraging the Gaussian Whittle-Matérn fields, which are solutions to fractional-order stochastic differential equations on metric graphs. To achieve computationally efficient likelihood-based inference, we introduce a numerical approximation of the likelihood that eliminates the need to approximate the Gaussian process. This method, coupled with the exact evaluation of finite-dimensional distributions for Whittle-Matérn fields with integer smoothness, ensures scalability and theoretical rigour, with derived convergence rates for posterior distributions. The framework is implemented in the open-source MetricGraph R package, which integrates seamlessly with R-INLA to support fully Bayesian inference. We demonstrate the applicability and scalability of this approach through an analysis of road accident data from Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia, consisting of over 150,000 road segments. By identifying high-risk road segments using exceedance probabilities and excursion sets, our framework provides localized insights into accident hotspots and offers a powerful tool for modeling spatial point processes directly on complex networks. |
| title | Log-Gaussian Cox Processes on General Metric Graphs |
| topic | Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.18558 |