Confronting Contemporary Seasonality Changes in East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfalls with a Multi-Century Historical Baseline
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arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908596080476160 |
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| author | Zhang, Gan Lin, Kuanhui Elaine Fu, Dan Knutson, Tom Franke, Jorg Tseng, Wan-Ling |
| author_facet | Zhang, Gan Lin, Kuanhui Elaine Fu, Dan Knutson, Tom Franke, Jorg Tseng, Wan-Ling |
| contents | Paleoclimate records provide a critical long-term perspective on natural climate variability, essential for understanding contemporary climate change. However, existing paleoclimate proxies lack the spatial-temporal coverage for studying changes in high-impact weather extremes like tropical cyclones (TCs). Here we introduce a multi-source framework that confronts the contemporary changes in TC landfalls in East Asia with a multi-century baseline (1368-1911) reconstructed from historical documents. Leveraging pre-industrial and contemporary data, the analysis reveals that a relatively small shift toward earlier landfalls in the contemporary era (1946-2020). However, this shift falls well within the range of natural fluctuations documented historically (1651-1900). This low signal-to-noise ratio indicates the forced anthropogenic signal of TC landfall timing remains challenging to detect. Besides providing a template for assessing seasonality changes in extremes, our work shows consistent natural controls of TC timing in contemporary and pre-industrial eras, lending credibility to pre-industrial observational datasets and climate simulations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_00276 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Confronting Contemporary Seasonality Changes in East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfalls with a Multi-Century Historical Baseline Zhang, Gan Lin, Kuanhui Elaine Fu, Dan Knutson, Tom Franke, Jorg Tseng, Wan-Ling Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Paleoclimate records provide a critical long-term perspective on natural climate variability, essential for understanding contemporary climate change. However, existing paleoclimate proxies lack the spatial-temporal coverage for studying changes in high-impact weather extremes like tropical cyclones (TCs). Here we introduce a multi-source framework that confronts the contemporary changes in TC landfalls in East Asia with a multi-century baseline (1368-1911) reconstructed from historical documents. Leveraging pre-industrial and contemporary data, the analysis reveals that a relatively small shift toward earlier landfalls in the contemporary era (1946-2020). However, this shift falls well within the range of natural fluctuations documented historically (1651-1900). This low signal-to-noise ratio indicates the forced anthropogenic signal of TC landfall timing remains challenging to detect. Besides providing a template for assessing seasonality changes in extremes, our work shows consistent natural controls of TC timing in contemporary and pre-industrial eras, lending credibility to pre-industrial observational datasets and climate simulations. |
| title | Confronting Contemporary Seasonality Changes in East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfalls with a Multi-Century Historical Baseline |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.00276 |