A Proof of The Changepoint Detection Threshold Conjecture in Preferential Attachment Models

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Hauptverfasser: Du, Hang, Gong, Shuyang, Xu, Jiaming
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
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author Du, Hang
Gong, Shuyang
Xu, Jiaming
author_facet Du, Hang
Gong, Shuyang
Xu, Jiaming
contents We investigate the problem of detecting and estimating a changepoint in the attachment function of a network evolving according to a preferential attachment model on $n$ vertices, using only a single final snapshot of the network. Bet et al.~\cite{bet2023detecting} show that a simple test based on thresholding the number of vertices with minimum degrees can detect the changepoint when the change occurs at time $n-Ω(\sqrt{n})$. They further make the striking conjecture that detection becomes impossible for any test if the change occurs at time $n-o(\sqrt{n}).$ Kaddouri et al.~\cite{kaddouri2024impossibility} make a step forward by proving the detection is impossible if the change occurs at time $n-o(n^{1/3}).$ In this paper, we resolve the conjecture affirmatively, proving that detection is indeed impossible if the change occurs at time $n-o(\sqrt{n}).$ Furthermore, we establish that estimating the changepoint with an error smaller than $o(\sqrt{n})$ is also impossible, thereby confirming that the estimator proposed in Bhamidi et al.~\cite{bhamidi2018change} is order-optimal.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_00514
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle A Proof of The Changepoint Detection Threshold Conjecture in Preferential Attachment Models
Du, Hang
Gong, Shuyang
Xu, Jiaming
Probability
Combinatorics
Statistics Theory
Primary 05C80, Secondary 68Q87
We investigate the problem of detecting and estimating a changepoint in the attachment function of a network evolving according to a preferential attachment model on $n$ vertices, using only a single final snapshot of the network. Bet et al.~\cite{bet2023detecting} show that a simple test based on thresholding the number of vertices with minimum degrees can detect the changepoint when the change occurs at time $n-Ω(\sqrt{n})$. They further make the striking conjecture that detection becomes impossible for any test if the change occurs at time $n-o(\sqrt{n}).$ Kaddouri et al.~\cite{kaddouri2024impossibility} make a step forward by proving the detection is impossible if the change occurs at time $n-o(n^{1/3}).$ In this paper, we resolve the conjecture affirmatively, proving that detection is indeed impossible if the change occurs at time $n-o(\sqrt{n}).$ Furthermore, we establish that estimating the changepoint with an error smaller than $o(\sqrt{n})$ is also impossible, thereby confirming that the estimator proposed in Bhamidi et al.~\cite{bhamidi2018change} is order-optimal.
title A Proof of The Changepoint Detection Threshold Conjecture in Preferential Attachment Models
topic Probability
Combinatorics
Statistics Theory
Primary 05C80, Secondary 68Q87
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.00514