Climate network and complexity approach predict neutral ENSO event for 2025
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866929693681254400 |
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| author | Ludescher, J. Meng, J. Fan, J. Bunde, A. Schellnhuber, H. J. |
| author_facet | Ludescher, J. Meng, J. Fan, J. Bunde, A. Schellnhuber, H. J. |
| contents | The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with strong El Niño events often leading, in a warming climate, to new record highs. Recently, we have developed two approaches for the early forecasting of El Niño. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Niño event about 1 year ahead. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Niño event in the calendar year before. These methods successfully forecasted the onset of an Eastern Pacific El Niño for 2023/24 and the subsequent record-breaking warming of 2024. Here, we apply these methods to forecast the ENSO state in 2025. Both methods forecast the absence of an El Niño in 2025, with 91.2% and 91.7% probability, respectively. Combining these forecasts with a logistic regression based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) leads to a 69.6% probability that 2025/26 will be a neutral ENSO event. We estimate the probability of a La Niña at 21.8%. This makes it likely that the mean global temperature in 2025 will decrease somewhat compared to the 2024 level. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_00643 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Climate network and complexity approach predict neutral ENSO event for 2025 Ludescher, J. Meng, J. Fan, J. Bunde, A. Schellnhuber, H. J. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with strong El Niño events often leading, in a warming climate, to new record highs. Recently, we have developed two approaches for the early forecasting of El Niño. The climate network-based approach allows forecasting the onset of an El Niño event about 1 year ahead. The complexity-based approach allows additionally to forecast the magnitude of an upcoming El Niño event in the calendar year before. These methods successfully forecasted the onset of an Eastern Pacific El Niño for 2023/24 and the subsequent record-breaking warming of 2024. Here, we apply these methods to forecast the ENSO state in 2025. Both methods forecast the absence of an El Niño in 2025, with 91.2% and 91.7% probability, respectively. Combining these forecasts with a logistic regression based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) leads to a 69.6% probability that 2025/26 will be a neutral ENSO event. We estimate the probability of a La Niña at 21.8%. This makes it likely that the mean global temperature in 2025 will decrease somewhat compared to the 2024 level. |
| title | Climate network and complexity approach predict neutral ENSO event for 2025 |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.00643 |