Network-Driven Vaccination Strategies for Preventing Rebound Dynamics in Metapopulation Epidemic Control
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866929695847612416 |
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| author | Castioni, Piergiorgio Arenas, Alex |
| author_facet | Castioni, Piergiorgio Arenas, Alex |
| contents | A critical question in epidemic control concerns the minimal requirements for a vaccination campaign to effectively halt a contagion process. However, control measures can inadvertently trigger resurgence dynamics, driven by a reservoir of susceptible individuals left unexposed in the controlled wave. This phenomenon, known as the "rebound effect", is often preceded by a temporary drop in cases, termed usually as the "honeymoon period". In this study, we examine the fundamental conditions for rebound dynamics within a metapopulation network framework. By elucidating the mechanisms underlying rebound events, we derive a rigorous mathematical criterion that identifies, based solely on the metapopulation network structure, the specific vaccination strategies likely to precipitate a rebound. Additionally, we propose an alternative vaccination protocol designed to eliminate rebound dynamics entirely. This approach is analytically validated and offers a robust pathway toward sustainable epidemic control. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_01354 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Network-Driven Vaccination Strategies for Preventing Rebound Dynamics in Metapopulation Epidemic Control Castioni, Piergiorgio Arenas, Alex Physics and Society A critical question in epidemic control concerns the minimal requirements for a vaccination campaign to effectively halt a contagion process. However, control measures can inadvertently trigger resurgence dynamics, driven by a reservoir of susceptible individuals left unexposed in the controlled wave. This phenomenon, known as the "rebound effect", is often preceded by a temporary drop in cases, termed usually as the "honeymoon period". In this study, we examine the fundamental conditions for rebound dynamics within a metapopulation network framework. By elucidating the mechanisms underlying rebound events, we derive a rigorous mathematical criterion that identifies, based solely on the metapopulation network structure, the specific vaccination strategies likely to precipitate a rebound. Additionally, we propose an alternative vaccination protocol designed to eliminate rebound dynamics entirely. This approach is analytically validated and offers a robust pathway toward sustainable epidemic control. |
| title | Network-Driven Vaccination Strategies for Preventing Rebound Dynamics in Metapopulation Epidemic Control |
| topic | Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.01354 |