Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Robinson, Benjamin D., Latimer, Van
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.02006
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866915337948102656
author Robinson, Benjamin D.
Latimer, Van
author_facet Robinson, Benjamin D.
Latimer, Van
contents We investigate covariance shrinkage for Hotelling's $T^2$ in the regime where the data dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ grow in a fixed ratio -- without assuming that the population covariance matrix is spiked or well-conditioned. When $p/n\toϕ\in (0,1)$, we propose a practical finite-sample shrinker that, for any maximum-entropy signal prior and any fixed significance level, (a) asymptotically maximizes power under Gaussian data, and (b) asymptotically saturates the Hanson--Wright lower bound on power in the more general sub-Gaussian case. Our approach is to formulate and solve a variational problem characterizing the optimal limiting shrinker, and to show that our finite-sample method consistently approximates this limit by extending recent local random matrix laws. Empirical studies on simulated and real-world data, including the Crawdad UMich/RSS data set, demonstrate up to a $50\%$ gain in power over leading linear and nonlinear competitors at a significance level of $10^{-4}$.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_02006
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Spectrally Robust Covariance Shrinkage for Hotelling's $T^2$ in High Dimensions
Robinson, Benjamin D.
Latimer, Van
Statistics Theory
Probability
Methodology
62H15
G.3
We investigate covariance shrinkage for Hotelling's $T^2$ in the regime where the data dimension $p$ and the sample size $n$ grow in a fixed ratio -- without assuming that the population covariance matrix is spiked or well-conditioned. When $p/n\toϕ\in (0,1)$, we propose a practical finite-sample shrinker that, for any maximum-entropy signal prior and any fixed significance level, (a) asymptotically maximizes power under Gaussian data, and (b) asymptotically saturates the Hanson--Wright lower bound on power in the more general sub-Gaussian case. Our approach is to formulate and solve a variational problem characterizing the optimal limiting shrinker, and to show that our finite-sample method consistently approximates this limit by extending recent local random matrix laws. Empirical studies on simulated and real-world data, including the Crawdad UMich/RSS data set, demonstrate up to a $50\%$ gain in power over leading linear and nonlinear competitors at a significance level of $10^{-4}$.
title Spectrally Robust Covariance Shrinkage for Hotelling's $T^2$ in High Dimensions
topic Statistics Theory
Probability
Methodology
62H15
G.3
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.02006