Backcasting the Optimal Decisions in Transport Systems: An Example with Electric Vehicle Purchase Incentives
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866917913335693312 |
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| author | Lakshmanan, Vinith Guichet, Xavier Sciarretta, Antonio |
| author_facet | Lakshmanan, Vinith Guichet, Xavier Sciarretta, Antonio |
| contents | This study represents a first attempt to build a backcasting methodology to identify the optimal policy roadmaps in transport systems. In this methodology, desired objectives are set by decision makers at a given time horizon, and then the optimal combinations of policies to achieve these objectives are computed as a function of time (i.e., ``backcasted''). This approach is illustrated on the transportation sector by considering a specific subsystem with a single policy decision. The subsystem describes the evolution of the passenger car fleet within a given region and its impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The optimized policy is a monetary incentive for the purchase of electric vehicles while minimizing the total budget of the state and achieving a desired CO$_2$ target. A case study applied to Metropolitan France is presented to illustrate the approach. Additionally, alternative policy scenarios are also analyzed to provide further insights. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_02622 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Backcasting the Optimal Decisions in Transport Systems: An Example with Electric Vehicle Purchase Incentives Lakshmanan, Vinith Guichet, Xavier Sciarretta, Antonio Optimization and Control Systems and Control This study represents a first attempt to build a backcasting methodology to identify the optimal policy roadmaps in transport systems. In this methodology, desired objectives are set by decision makers at a given time horizon, and then the optimal combinations of policies to achieve these objectives are computed as a function of time (i.e., ``backcasted''). This approach is illustrated on the transportation sector by considering a specific subsystem with a single policy decision. The subsystem describes the evolution of the passenger car fleet within a given region and its impact on greenhouse gas emissions. The optimized policy is a monetary incentive for the purchase of electric vehicles while minimizing the total budget of the state and achieving a desired CO$_2$ target. A case study applied to Metropolitan France is presented to illustrate the approach. Additionally, alternative policy scenarios are also analyzed to provide further insights. |
| title | Backcasting the Optimal Decisions in Transport Systems: An Example with Electric Vehicle Purchase Incentives |
| topic | Optimization and Control Systems and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.02622 |