Markov Renewal Proportional Hazards is All You Need
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866915478233939968 |
|---|---|
| author | Cui, Elvis Han |
| author_facet | Cui, Elvis Han |
| contents | Transition probability estimation plays a critical role in multi-state modeling, especially in clinical research. This paper investigates the application of semi-Markov and Markov renewal frameworks to the EBMT dataset, focusing on six clinical states encountered during hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. By comparing Aalen-Johansen (AJ) and Dabrowska-Sun-Horowitz (DSH) estimators, we demonstrate that semi-Markov models, which incorporate sojourn times, provide a more nuanced and temporally sensitive depiction of patient trajectories compared to memoryless Markov models. The DSH estimator consistently yields smoother probability curves, particularly for transitions involving prolonged states. We use empirical process theory and Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality to show weak convergence of the estimator. Future work includes extending the framework to accommodate advanced covariate structures and non-Markovian dynamics. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_03479 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Markov Renewal Proportional Hazards is All You Need Cui, Elvis Han Applications Computation Transition probability estimation plays a critical role in multi-state modeling, especially in clinical research. This paper investigates the application of semi-Markov and Markov renewal frameworks to the EBMT dataset, focusing on six clinical states encountered during hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. By comparing Aalen-Johansen (AJ) and Dabrowska-Sun-Horowitz (DSH) estimators, we demonstrate that semi-Markov models, which incorporate sojourn times, provide a more nuanced and temporally sensitive depiction of patient trajectories compared to memoryless Markov models. The DSH estimator consistently yields smoother probability curves, particularly for transitions involving prolonged states. We use empirical process theory and Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality to show weak convergence of the estimator. Future work includes extending the framework to accommodate advanced covariate structures and non-Markovian dynamics. |
| title | Markov Renewal Proportional Hazards is All You Need |
| topic | Applications Computation |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.03479 |