Is Science Inevitable?
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
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| _version_ | 1866916611507617792 |
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| author | Li, Linzhuo Lin, Yiling Wu, Lingfei |
| author_facet | Li, Linzhuo Lin, Yiling Wu, Lingfei |
| contents | Using large-scale citation data and a breakthrough metric, the study systematically evaluates the inevitability of scientific breakthroughs. We find that scientific breakthroughs emerge as multiple discoveries rather than singular events. Through analysis of over 40 million journal articles, we identify multiple discoveries as papers that independently displace the same reference using the Disruption Index (D-index), suggesting functional equivalence. Our findings support Merton's core argument that scientific discoveries arise from historical context rather than individual genius. The results reveal a long-tail distribution pattern of multiple discoveries across various datasets, challenging Merton's Poisson model while reinforcing the structural inevitability of scientific progress. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_06190 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Is Science Inevitable? Li, Linzhuo Lin, Yiling Wu, Lingfei Digital Libraries Social and Information Networks Using large-scale citation data and a breakthrough metric, the study systematically evaluates the inevitability of scientific breakthroughs. We find that scientific breakthroughs emerge as multiple discoveries rather than singular events. Through analysis of over 40 million journal articles, we identify multiple discoveries as papers that independently displace the same reference using the Disruption Index (D-index), suggesting functional equivalence. Our findings support Merton's core argument that scientific discoveries arise from historical context rather than individual genius. The results reveal a long-tail distribution pattern of multiple discoveries across various datasets, challenging Merton's Poisson model while reinforcing the structural inevitability of scientific progress. |
| title | Is Science Inevitable? |
| topic | Digital Libraries Social and Information Networks |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.06190 |