Beyond Confidence: Adaptive Abstention in Dual-Threshold Conformal Prediction for Autonomous System Perception
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915505274617856 |
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| author | Kumar, Divake Darabi, Nastaran Tayebati, Sina Trivedi, Amit Ranjan |
| author_facet | Kumar, Divake Darabi, Nastaran Tayebati, Sina Trivedi, Amit Ranjan |
| contents | Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (>= 1 - alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993 to 0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5% to 63.4% +/- 0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995 +/- 0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_07255 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Beyond Confidence: Adaptive Abstention in Dual-Threshold Conformal Prediction for Autonomous System Perception Kumar, Divake Darabi, Nastaran Tayebati, Sina Trivedi, Amit Ranjan Robotics Machine Learning Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (>= 1 - alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993 to 0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5% to 63.4% +/- 0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995 +/- 0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions. |
| title | Beyond Confidence: Adaptive Abstention in Dual-Threshold Conformal Prediction for Autonomous System Perception |
| topic | Robotics Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.07255 |