Channel Dependence, Limited Lookback Windows, and the Simplicity of Datasets: How Biased is Time Series Forecasting?
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866912911668019200 |
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| author | Abdelmalak, Ibram Madhusudhanan, Kiran Choi, Jungmin Kloetergens, Christian Yalavarit, Vijaya Krishna Stubbemann, Maximilian Schmidt-Thieme, Lars |
| author_facet | Abdelmalak, Ibram Madhusudhanan, Kiran Choi, Jungmin Kloetergens, Christian Yalavarit, Vijaya Krishna Stubbemann, Maximilian Schmidt-Thieme, Lars |
| contents | In Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), the lookback window is a critical hyperparameter often set arbitrarily, undermining the validity of model evaluations. We argue that the lookback window must be tuned on a per-task basis to ensure fair comparisons. Our empirical results show that failing to do so can invert performance rankings, particularly when comparing univariate and multivariate methods. Experiments on standard benchmarks reposition Channel-Independent (CI) models, such as PatchTST, as state-of-the-art methods. However, we reveal this superior performance is largely an artifact of weak inter-channel correlations and simplicity of patterns within these specific datasets. Using Granger causality analysis and ODE datasets (with implicit channel correlations), we demonstrate that the true strength of multivariate Channel-Dependent (CD) models emerges on datasets with strong, inherent cross-channel dependencies, where they significantly outperform CI models. We conclude with four key recommendations for improving TSF research: (i) consider the lookback window as a key hyperparameter to tune, (ii) for standard datasets, examining CI architectures is advantageous, (iii) leverage statistical analysis of datasets to guide the choice between CI and CD architectures, and (iv) prefer CD models in scenarios with limited data. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_09683 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Channel Dependence, Limited Lookback Windows, and the Simplicity of Datasets: How Biased is Time Series Forecasting? Abdelmalak, Ibram Madhusudhanan, Kiran Choi, Jungmin Kloetergens, Christian Yalavarit, Vijaya Krishna Stubbemann, Maximilian Schmidt-Thieme, Lars Machine Learning In Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), the lookback window is a critical hyperparameter often set arbitrarily, undermining the validity of model evaluations. We argue that the lookback window must be tuned on a per-task basis to ensure fair comparisons. Our empirical results show that failing to do so can invert performance rankings, particularly when comparing univariate and multivariate methods. Experiments on standard benchmarks reposition Channel-Independent (CI) models, such as PatchTST, as state-of-the-art methods. However, we reveal this superior performance is largely an artifact of weak inter-channel correlations and simplicity of patterns within these specific datasets. Using Granger causality analysis and ODE datasets (with implicit channel correlations), we demonstrate that the true strength of multivariate Channel-Dependent (CD) models emerges on datasets with strong, inherent cross-channel dependencies, where they significantly outperform CI models. We conclude with four key recommendations for improving TSF research: (i) consider the lookback window as a key hyperparameter to tune, (ii) for standard datasets, examining CI architectures is advantageous, (iii) leverage statistical analysis of datasets to guide the choice between CI and CD architectures, and (iv) prefer CD models in scenarios with limited data. |
| title | Channel Dependence, Limited Lookback Windows, and the Simplicity of Datasets: How Biased is Time Series Forecasting? |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.09683 |