Time series forecasting based on optimized LLM for fault prediction in distribution power grid insulators

Fuente: arXiv
Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Matos-Carvalho, João Pedro, Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo, Leithardt, Valderi Reis Quietinho, Yow, Kin-Choong
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866917939947503616
author Matos-Carvalho, João Pedro
Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo
Leithardt, Valderi Reis Quietinho
Yow, Kin-Choong
author_facet Matos-Carvalho, João Pedro
Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo
Leithardt, Valderi Reis Quietinho
Yow, Kin-Choong
contents Surface contamination on electrical grid insulators leads to an increase in leakage current until an electrical discharge occurs, which can result in a power system shutdown. To mitigate the possibility of disruptive faults resulting in a power outage, monitoring contamination and leakage current can help predict the progression of faults. Given this need, this paper proposes a hybrid deep learning (DL) model for predicting the increase in leakage current in high-voltage insulators. The hybrid structure considers a multi-criteria optimization using tree-structured Parzen estimation, an input stage filter for signal noise attenuation combined with a large language model (LLM) applied for time series forecasting. The proposed optimized LLM outperforms state-of-the-art DL models with a root-mean-square error equal to 2.24$\times10^{-4}$ for a short-term horizon and 1.21$\times10^{-3}$ for a medium-term horizon.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_17341
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Time series forecasting based on optimized LLM for fault prediction in distribution power grid insulators
Matos-Carvalho, João Pedro
Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo
Leithardt, Valderi Reis Quietinho
Yow, Kin-Choong
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Signal Processing
Surface contamination on electrical grid insulators leads to an increase in leakage current until an electrical discharge occurs, which can result in a power system shutdown. To mitigate the possibility of disruptive faults resulting in a power outage, monitoring contamination and leakage current can help predict the progression of faults. Given this need, this paper proposes a hybrid deep learning (DL) model for predicting the increase in leakage current in high-voltage insulators. The hybrid structure considers a multi-criteria optimization using tree-structured Parzen estimation, an input stage filter for signal noise attenuation combined with a large language model (LLM) applied for time series forecasting. The proposed optimized LLM outperforms state-of-the-art DL models with a root-mean-square error equal to 2.24$\times10^{-4}$ for a short-term horizon and 1.21$\times10^{-3}$ for a medium-term horizon.
title Time series forecasting based on optimized LLM for fault prediction in distribution power grid insulators
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Signal Processing
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17341