Certified Decisions
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866917935609544704 |
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| author | Andrews, Isaiah Chen, Jiafeng |
| author_facet | Andrews, Isaiah Chen, Jiafeng |
| contents | Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are ubiquitous in empirical research, yet their connection to subsequent decision-making is often unclear. We develop a theory of certified decisions that pairs recommended decisions with inferential guarantees. Specifically, we attach P-certificates -- upper bounds on loss that hold with probability at least $1-α$ -- to recommended actions. We show that such certificates allow "safe," risk-controlling adoption decisions for ambiguity-averse downstream decision-makers. We further prove that it is without loss to limit attention to P-certificates arising as minimax decisions over confidence sets, or what Manski (2021) terms "as-if decisions with a set estimate." A parallel argument applies to E-certified decisions obtained from e-values in settings with unbounded loss. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_17830 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Certified Decisions Andrews, Isaiah Chen, Jiafeng Econometrics Theoretical Economics Statistics Theory Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are ubiquitous in empirical research, yet their connection to subsequent decision-making is often unclear. We develop a theory of certified decisions that pairs recommended decisions with inferential guarantees. Specifically, we attach P-certificates -- upper bounds on loss that hold with probability at least $1-α$ -- to recommended actions. We show that such certificates allow "safe," risk-controlling adoption decisions for ambiguity-averse downstream decision-makers. We further prove that it is without loss to limit attention to P-certificates arising as minimax decisions over confidence sets, or what Manski (2021) terms "as-if decisions with a set estimate." A parallel argument applies to E-certified decisions obtained from e-values in settings with unbounded loss. |
| title | Certified Decisions |
| topic | Econometrics Theoretical Economics Statistics Theory |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17830 |