Purported quantitative support for multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans is an artefact of an imbalanced hypothesis testing framework
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908935239237632 |
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| author | McCowan, Angus |
| author_facet | McCowan, Angus |
| contents | A prominent report claimed substantial support for two introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans using a calculation that combined phylodynamic inferences and epidemic models. Inspection of the calculation identifies an imbalance in the hypothesis testing framework that confounds this result; the single-introduction model was tested against more stringent conditions than the two-introduction model. Here, I show that when the two-introduction model is tested against the same conditions, the support disappears. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2502_20076 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Purported quantitative support for multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans is an artefact of an imbalanced hypothesis testing framework McCowan, Angus Quantitative Methods A prominent report claimed substantial support for two introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans using a calculation that combined phylodynamic inferences and epidemic models. Inspection of the calculation identifies an imbalance in the hypothesis testing framework that confounds this result; the single-introduction model was tested against more stringent conditions than the two-introduction model. Here, I show that when the two-introduction model is tested against the same conditions, the support disappears. |
| title | Purported quantitative support for multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans is an artefact of an imbalanced hypothesis testing framework |
| topic | Quantitative Methods |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.20076 |