Tail Asymptotics of Cluster Sizes in Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Blanchet, Jose, Laeven, Roger J. A., Wang, Xingyu, Zwart, Bert
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Blanchet, Jose
Laeven, Roger J. A.
Wang, Xingyu
Zwart, Bert
author_facet Blanchet, Jose
Laeven, Roger J. A.
Wang, Xingyu
Zwart, Bert
contents We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution and demonstrate the emergence of a form of multivariate hidden regular variation. Large values of the cluster size vector result from one or several significant jumps. A discrete optimization problem involving any given rare event set of interest determines the exact configuration of these large jumps and the degree of hidden regular variation. Our proofs rely on a detailed probabilistic analysis of the spatiotemporal structure of multiple large jumps in multi-type branching processes.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_01004
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Tail Asymptotics of Cluster Sizes in Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes
Blanchet, Jose
Laeven, Roger J. A.
Wang, Xingyu
Zwart, Bert
Probability
We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution and demonstrate the emergence of a form of multivariate hidden regular variation. Large values of the cluster size vector result from one or several significant jumps. A discrete optimization problem involving any given rare event set of interest determines the exact configuration of these large jumps and the degree of hidden regular variation. Our proofs rely on a detailed probabilistic analysis of the spatiotemporal structure of multiple large jumps in multi-type branching processes.
title Tail Asymptotics of Cluster Sizes in Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Hawkes Processes
topic Probability
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.01004