Evaluating Prediction-based Interventions with Human Decision Makers In Mind

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Raji, Inioluwa Deborah, Liu, Lydia
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Raji, Inioluwa Deborah
Liu, Lydia
author_facet Raji, Inioluwa Deborah
Liu, Lydia
contents Automated decision systems (ADS) are broadly deployed to inform and support human decision-making across a wide range of consequential settings. However, various context-specific details complicate the goal of establishing meaningful experimental evaluations for prediction-based interventions. Notably, current experiment designs rely on simplifying assumptions about human decision making in order to derive causal estimates. In reality, specific experimental design decisions may induce cognitive biases in human decision makers, which could then significantly alter the observed effect sizes of the prediction intervention. In this paper, we formalize and investigate various models of human decision-making in the presence of a predictive model aid. We show that each of these behavioural models produces dependencies across decision subjects and results in the violation of existing assumptions, with consequences for treatment effect estimation. This work aims to further advance the scientific validity of intervention-based evaluation schemes for the assessment of ADS deployments.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_05704
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Evaluating Prediction-based Interventions with Human Decision Makers In Mind
Raji, Inioluwa Deborah
Liu, Lydia
Computers and Society
Automated decision systems (ADS) are broadly deployed to inform and support human decision-making across a wide range of consequential settings. However, various context-specific details complicate the goal of establishing meaningful experimental evaluations for prediction-based interventions. Notably, current experiment designs rely on simplifying assumptions about human decision making in order to derive causal estimates. In reality, specific experimental design decisions may induce cognitive biases in human decision makers, which could then significantly alter the observed effect sizes of the prediction intervention. In this paper, we formalize and investigate various models of human decision-making in the presence of a predictive model aid. We show that each of these behavioural models produces dependencies across decision subjects and results in the violation of existing assumptions, with consequences for treatment effect estimation. This work aims to further advance the scientific validity of intervention-based evaluation schemes for the assessment of ADS deployments.
title Evaluating Prediction-based Interventions with Human Decision Makers In Mind
topic Computers and Society
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05704