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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Sutton, Aja, Almquist, Zack W., Wakefield, Jon
Format:	Preprint
Published:	2025
Subjects:	Applications
Online Access:	https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05915
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Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a computationally efficient indirect estimation method that can quickly produce improved population-adjusted estimates with limited data. Recent computational advancements allow efficient, relatively simple, and quick approximate Bayesian estimation for MRP. As population health outcomes of interest including vaccination uptake are known to have spatial structure, precision may be gained by including space in the model. We test a recently proposed spatial MRP method that includes a BYM2 spatial term that smooths across demographics and geographic areas using a large, unrepresentative survey. We produce California county-level estimates of first-dose COVID-19 vaccination up to June 2021 using classic and spatial MRP models, and poststratify using data from the American Community Survey (US Census Bureau). We assess validity using reported first-dose vaccination counts from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Neither classic nor spatial MRP models performed well, highlighting: 1. spatial MRP may be most appropriate for richer data contexts, 2. some demographics in the survey data are over-sampled and -aggregated, producing model over-smoothing, and 3. a need for survey producers to share user-representative metrics to better benchmark estimates.

if (filemtime($filename) + $maxlifetime < time()) { unlink($filename); $count++; } } return $count; } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool { $sessFile = $this->path . '/sess_' . $sessId; if ($handle = fopen($sessFile, 'w')) { $return = false; // Lock the file for exclusive access to avoid issues with multiple // processes writing session simultaneously: if (flock($handle, LOCK_EX)) { $return = fwrite($handle, $data); // Make sure that there's no trailing data by truncating the file to // the correct length: ftruncate($handle, strlen($data)); fflush($handle); flock($handle, LOCK_UN); } fclose($handle); if ($return !== false) { return true; } } // If we got this far, something went wrong with the file output... // It is tempting to throw an exception here, but this code is called // outside of the context of exception handling, so all we can do is // echo a message.

// Anecdotal testing Today and Yesterday seems to indicate destroy() // is called by the garbage collector and everything is good. // Something to keep in mind though. return 0; } /** * Write function that is called when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ public function write($sessId, $data): bool { if ($this->writesDisabled) { return true; } return $this->saveSession($sessId, $data); } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ abstract protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool; }

* * @return void */ public function writeClose() { // The assumption is that we're using PHP's ext/session. // session_write_close() will actually overwrite $_SESSION with an // empty array on completion -- which leads to a mismatch between what // is in the storage object and $_SESSION. To get around this, we // temporarily reset $_SESSION to an array, and then re-link it to // the storage object. // // Additionally, while you _can_ write to $_SESSION following a // session_write_close() operation, no changes made to it will be // flushed to the session handler. As such, we now mark the storage // object isImmutable. $storage = $this->getStorage(); if (! $storage->isImmutable()) { $_SESSION = $storage->toArray(true); session_write_close(); $storage->fromArray($_SESSION); $storage->markImmutable(); } } /** * Attempt to set the session name * * If the session has already been started, or if the name provided fails * validation, an exception will be raised. * * @param string $name * @return SessionManager * @throws Exception\InvalidArgumentException */ public function setName($name) { if ($this->sessionExists()) { throw new Exception\InvalidArgumentException( 'Cannot set session name after a session has already started'

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