European supercell thunderstorms -- an underestimated current threat and an increasing future hazard
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| author | Feldmann, Monika Blanc, Michael Brennan, Killian P. Thurnherr, Iris Velasquez, Patricio Martius, Olivia Schär, Christoph |
| author_facet | Feldmann, Monika Blanc, Michael Brennan, Killian P. Thurnherr, Iris Velasquez, Patricio Martius, Olivia Schär, Christoph |
| contents | Supercell thunderstorms are the most hazardous thunderstorm category and particularly impactful to society. Their monitoring is challenging and often confined to the radar networks of single countries. By exploiting kilometer-scale climate simulations, a first-of-its-kind characterization of supercell occurrence in Europe is derived for the current and a warmer climate. Despite previous notions of supercells being uncommon in Europe, the model shows ~700 supercells per convective season. Occurrence peaks are co-located with complex topography e.g. the Alps. The absolute frequency maximum lies along the southern Alps with minima over the oceans and flat areas. Contrasting a current-climate simulation with a pseudo-global-warming +3$^\circ$C global warming scenario, the future climate simulation shows an average increase of supercell occurrence by 11 %. However, there is a spatial dipole of change with strong increases in supercell frequencies in central and eastern Europe and a decrease in frequency over the Iberian Peninsula and southwestern France. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_07466 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | European supercell thunderstorms -- an underestimated current threat and an increasing future hazard Feldmann, Monika Blanc, Michael Brennan, Killian P. Thurnherr, Iris Velasquez, Patricio Martius, Olivia Schär, Christoph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Geophysics Supercell thunderstorms are the most hazardous thunderstorm category and particularly impactful to society. Their monitoring is challenging and often confined to the radar networks of single countries. By exploiting kilometer-scale climate simulations, a first-of-its-kind characterization of supercell occurrence in Europe is derived for the current and a warmer climate. Despite previous notions of supercells being uncommon in Europe, the model shows ~700 supercells per convective season. Occurrence peaks are co-located with complex topography e.g. the Alps. The absolute frequency maximum lies along the southern Alps with minima over the oceans and flat areas. Contrasting a current-climate simulation with a pseudo-global-warming +3$^\circ$C global warming scenario, the future climate simulation shows an average increase of supercell occurrence by 11 %. However, there is a spatial dipole of change with strong increases in supercell frequencies in central and eastern Europe and a decrease in frequency over the Iberian Peninsula and southwestern France. |
| title | European supercell thunderstorms -- an underestimated current threat and an increasing future hazard |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Geophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.07466 |