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Main Authors: Wang, Changgang, Liu, Wei, Cao, Yu, Liang, Dong, Li, Yang, Mo, Jingshan
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.07648
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author Wang, Changgang
Liu, Wei
Cao, Yu
Liang, Dong
Li, Yang
Mo, Jingshan
author_facet Wang, Changgang
Liu, Wei
Cao, Yu
Liang, Dong
Li, Yang
Mo, Jingshan
contents In the context of the rising share of new energy generation, accurately generating new energy output scenarios is crucial for day-ahead power system scheduling. Deep learning-based scenario generation methods can address this need, but their black-box nature raises concerns about interpretability. To tackle this issue, this paper introduces a method for day-ahead new energy scenario generation based on an improved conditional generative diffusion model. This method is built on the theoretical framework of Markov chains and variational inference. It first transforms historical data into pure noise through a diffusion process, then uses conditional information to guide the denoising process, ultimately generating scenarios that satisfy the conditional distribution. Additionally, the noise table is improved to a cosine form, enhancing the quality of the generated scenarios. When applied to actual wind and solar output data, the results demonstrate that this method effectively generates new energy output scenarios with good adaptability.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_07648
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle The day-ahead scenario generation method for new energy based on an improved conditional generative diffusion model
Wang, Changgang
Liu, Wei
Cao, Yu
Liang, Dong
Li, Yang
Mo, Jingshan
Machine Learning
In the context of the rising share of new energy generation, accurately generating new energy output scenarios is crucial for day-ahead power system scheduling. Deep learning-based scenario generation methods can address this need, but their black-box nature raises concerns about interpretability. To tackle this issue, this paper introduces a method for day-ahead new energy scenario generation based on an improved conditional generative diffusion model. This method is built on the theoretical framework of Markov chains and variational inference. It first transforms historical data into pure noise through a diffusion process, then uses conditional information to guide the denoising process, ultimately generating scenarios that satisfy the conditional distribution. Additionally, the noise table is improved to a cosine form, enhancing the quality of the generated scenarios. When applied to actual wind and solar output data, the results demonstrate that this method effectively generates new energy output scenarios with good adaptability.
title The day-ahead scenario generation method for new energy based on an improved conditional generative diffusion model
topic Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.07648