A Simple and Explainable Model for Park-and-Ride Car Park Occupancy Prediction
Fuente:
arXiv
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| _version_ | 1866914087219232768 |
|---|---|
| author | Kaltenbrunner, Andreas Ferrer, Josep Moreno, David Gómez, Vicenç |
| author_facet | Kaltenbrunner, Andreas Ferrer, Josep Moreno, David Gómez, Vicenç |
| contents | In a scenario of growing usage of park-and-ride facilities, understanding and predicting car park occupancy is becoming increasingly important. This study presents a model that effectively captures the occupancy patterns of park-and-ride car parks for commuters using truncated normal distributions for vehicle arrival and departure times. The objective is to develop a predictive model with minimal parameters corresponding to commuter behaviour, enabling the estimation of parking saturation and unfulfilled demand. The proposed model successfully identifies the regular, periodic nature of commuter parking behaviour, where vehicles arrive in the morning and depart in the afternoon. It operates using aggregate data, eliminating the need for individual tracking of arrivals and departures. The model's predictive and now-casting capabilities are demonstrated through real-world data from car parks in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. A simple model extension furthermore enables the prediction of when a car park will reach its occupancy limit and estimates the additional spaces required to accommodate such excess demand. Thus, beyond forecasting, the model serves as a valuable tool for evaluating interventions, such as expanding parking capacity, to optimize park-and-ride facilities. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_12044 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Simple and Explainable Model for Park-and-Ride Car Park Occupancy Prediction Kaltenbrunner, Andreas Ferrer, Josep Moreno, David Gómez, Vicenç Applications Emerging Technologies Physics and Society In a scenario of growing usage of park-and-ride facilities, understanding and predicting car park occupancy is becoming increasingly important. This study presents a model that effectively captures the occupancy patterns of park-and-ride car parks for commuters using truncated normal distributions for vehicle arrival and departure times. The objective is to develop a predictive model with minimal parameters corresponding to commuter behaviour, enabling the estimation of parking saturation and unfulfilled demand. The proposed model successfully identifies the regular, periodic nature of commuter parking behaviour, where vehicles arrive in the morning and depart in the afternoon. It operates using aggregate data, eliminating the need for individual tracking of arrivals and departures. The model's predictive and now-casting capabilities are demonstrated through real-world data from car parks in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. A simple model extension furthermore enables the prediction of when a car park will reach its occupancy limit and estimates the additional spaces required to accommodate such excess demand. Thus, beyond forecasting, the model serves as a valuable tool for evaluating interventions, such as expanding parking capacity, to optimize park-and-ride facilities. |
| title | A Simple and Explainable Model for Park-and-Ride Car Park Occupancy Prediction |
| topic | Applications Emerging Technologies Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.12044 |