Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| author | Pelosi, David Barão, Fernando Bertucci, Bruna Fiandrini, Emanuele Orcinha, Miguel Conde, Alejandro Reina Tomassetti, Nicola |
| author_facet | Pelosi, David Barão, Fernando Bertucci, Bruna Fiandrini, Emanuele Orcinha, Miguel Conde, Alejandro Reina Tomassetti, Nicola |
| contents | The study presents an effective approach for deriving and utilizing polarity-based cross-correlation functions to forecast Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes based on solar activity proxies. By leveraging a universal correlation framework calibrated with AMS-02 and PAMELA proton flux data under a numerical model, the methodology incorporates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and a global spline fit. These techniques ensure robust handling of short-term fluctuations and smooth transitions during polarity reversals. The results have significant potential for space weather applications, enabling reliable GCR flux predictions critical for radiation risk assessments and operational planning in space exploration and satellite missions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_17812 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting Pelosi, David Barão, Fernando Bertucci, Bruna Fiandrini, Emanuele Orcinha, Miguel Conde, Alejandro Reina Tomassetti, Nicola Space Physics Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Solar and Stellar Astrophysics The study presents an effective approach for deriving and utilizing polarity-based cross-correlation functions to forecast Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes based on solar activity proxies. By leveraging a universal correlation framework calibrated with AMS-02 and PAMELA proton flux data under a numerical model, the methodology incorporates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and a global spline fit. These techniques ensure robust handling of short-term fluctuations and smooth transitions during polarity reversals. The results have significant potential for space weather applications, enabling reliable GCR flux predictions critical for radiation risk assessments and operational planning in space exploration and satellite missions. |
| title | Cross-correlation analysis for cosmic ray flux forecasting |
| topic | Space Physics Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Solar and Stellar Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.17812 |