Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.19354 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866910892360204288 |
|---|---|
| author | Hirabayashi, Yuta Matsuoka, Daisuke |
| author_facet | Hirabayashi, Yuta Matsuoka, Daisuke |
| contents | Data-driven weather prediction models exhibit promising performance and advance continuously. In particular, diffusion models represent fine-scale details without spatial smoothing, which is crucial for mesoscale predictions, such as heavy rainfall forecasting. However, the applications of diffusion models to mesoscale prediction remain limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an architecture that combines a diffusion model with Swin-Unet as a deterministic model, achieving mesoscale predictions while maintaining flexibility. The proposed architecture trains the two models independently, allowing the diffusion model to remain unchanged when the deterministic model is updated. Comparisons using the Fractions Skill Score and power spectral analysis demonstrate that incorporating the diffusion model leads to improved accuracy compared to predictions without it. These findings underscore the potential of the proposed architecture to enhance mesoscale predictions, particularly for strong rainfall events, while maintaining flexibility. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_19354 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Data-driven Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Combining Swin-Unet and Diffusion Models Hirabayashi, Yuta Matsuoka, Daisuke Machine Learning Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Data-driven weather prediction models exhibit promising performance and advance continuously. In particular, diffusion models represent fine-scale details without spatial smoothing, which is crucial for mesoscale predictions, such as heavy rainfall forecasting. However, the applications of diffusion models to mesoscale prediction remain limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an architecture that combines a diffusion model with Swin-Unet as a deterministic model, achieving mesoscale predictions while maintaining flexibility. The proposed architecture trains the two models independently, allowing the diffusion model to remain unchanged when the deterministic model is updated. Comparisons using the Fractions Skill Score and power spectral analysis demonstrate that incorporating the diffusion model leads to improved accuracy compared to predictions without it. These findings underscore the potential of the proposed architecture to enhance mesoscale predictions, particularly for strong rainfall events, while maintaining flexibility. |
| title | Data-driven Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Combining Swin-Unet and Diffusion Models |
| topic | Machine Learning Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.19354 |