How Ground Deformation Influences Earthquake Occurrence During the Ongoing Unrest at Campi Flegrei (2005-Present)
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866909553694605312 |
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| author | Godano, Cataldo Convertito, Vincenzo Tramelli, Anna Petrillo, Giuseppe |
| author_facet | Godano, Cataldo Convertito, Vincenzo Tramelli, Anna Petrillo, Giuseppe |
| contents | We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we propose a nonlinear epidemic model that captures new features of the caldera system. Our model describes earthquakes' occurrence as a cascading process driven by ground deformation. The nonlinearity reflects the reduced efficiency of the triggering mechanism, which contributes to the short duration of seismic swarms. This mechanism may represent a general framework for understanding the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes worldwide. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_20129 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | How Ground Deformation Influences Earthquake Occurrence During the Ongoing Unrest at Campi Flegrei (2005-Present) Godano, Cataldo Convertito, Vincenzo Tramelli, Anna Petrillo, Giuseppe Geophysics Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we propose a nonlinear epidemic model that captures new features of the caldera system. Our model describes earthquakes' occurrence as a cascading process driven by ground deformation. The nonlinearity reflects the reduced efficiency of the triggering mechanism, which contributes to the short duration of seismic swarms. This mechanism may represent a general framework for understanding the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes worldwide. |
| title | How Ground Deformation Influences Earthquake Occurrence During the Ongoing Unrest at Campi Flegrei (2005-Present) |
| topic | Geophysics Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.20129 |