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Auteurs principaux: Spalding, Jon, Jayles, Bertrand, Schubert, Renate, Cheong, Siew Ann, Herrmann, Hans
Format: Preprint
Publié: 2025
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Accès en ligne:https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.20371
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author Spalding, Jon
Jayles, Bertrand
Schubert, Renate
Cheong, Siew Ann
Herrmann, Hans
author_facet Spalding, Jon
Jayles, Bertrand
Schubert, Renate
Cheong, Siew Ann
Herrmann, Hans
contents A resilient society is one capable of withstanding and thereafter recovering quickly from large shocks. Brought to the fore by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020--2022, this social resilience is nevertheless difficult to quantify. In this paper, we measured how quickly the Singapore society recovered from the pandemic, by first modeling it as a dynamic social network governed by three processes: (1) random link addition between strangers; (2) social link addition between individuals with a friend in common; and (3) random link deletion . To calibrate this model, we carried out a survey of a representative sample of $N = 2,057$ residents and non-residents in Singapore between Jul and Sep 2022 to measure the numbers of random and social contacts gained over a fixed duration, as well as the number of contacts lost over the same duration, using phone contacts as proxy for social contacts. Lockdown simulations using the model that fits the survey results best suggest that Singapore would recover from such a disruption after 1--2 months.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_20371
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Survey-Based Calibration of the One-Community and Two-Community Social Network Models Used for Testing Singapore's Resilience to Pandemic Lockdown
Spalding, Jon
Jayles, Bertrand
Schubert, Renate
Cheong, Siew Ann
Herrmann, Hans
Physics and Society
Social and Information Networks
A resilient society is one capable of withstanding and thereafter recovering quickly from large shocks. Brought to the fore by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020--2022, this social resilience is nevertheless difficult to quantify. In this paper, we measured how quickly the Singapore society recovered from the pandemic, by first modeling it as a dynamic social network governed by three processes: (1) random link addition between strangers; (2) social link addition between individuals with a friend in common; and (3) random link deletion . To calibrate this model, we carried out a survey of a representative sample of $N = 2,057$ residents and non-residents in Singapore between Jul and Sep 2022 to measure the numbers of random and social contacts gained over a fixed duration, as well as the number of contacts lost over the same duration, using phone contacts as proxy for social contacts. Lockdown simulations using the model that fits the survey results best suggest that Singapore would recover from such a disruption after 1--2 months.
title Survey-Based Calibration of the One-Community and Two-Community Social Network Models Used for Testing Singapore's Resilience to Pandemic Lockdown
topic Physics and Society
Social and Information Networks
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.20371