DeepRV: Accelerating Spatiotemporal Inference with Pre-trained Neural Priors

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Navott, Jhonathan, Jenson, Daniel, Flaxman, Seth, Semenova, Elizaveta
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Navott, Jhonathan
Jenson, Daniel
Flaxman, Seth
Semenova, Elizaveta
author_facet Navott, Jhonathan
Jenson, Daniel
Flaxman, Seth
Semenova, Elizaveta
contents Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a flexible and statistically principled foundation for modelling spatiotemporal phenomena, but their $O(N^3)$ scaling makes them intractable for large datasets. Approximate methods such as variational inference (VI), inducing-point (sparse) GPs, low-rank kernel approximations (e.g., Nystrom methods and random Fourier features), and approximations such as INLA improve scalability but typically trade off accuracy, calibration, or modelling flexibility. We introduce DeepRV, a neural-network surrogate that replaces GP prior sampling, while closely matching full GP accuracy at inference including hyperparameter estimates, and reducing computational complexity to $O(N^2)$, increasing scalability and inference speed. DeepRV serves as a drop-in replacement for GP prior realisations in e.g. MCMC-based probabilistic programming pipelines, preserving full model flexibility. Across simulated benchmarks, non-separable spatiotemporal GPs, and a real-world application to education deprivation in London (n = 4,994 locations), DeepRV achieves the highest fidelity to exact GPs while substantially accelerating inference. Code is provided in the dl4bi Python package, with all experiments run on a single consumer-grade GPU to ensure accessibility for practitioners.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_21473
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle DeepRV: Accelerating Spatiotemporal Inference with Pre-trained Neural Priors
Navott, Jhonathan
Jenson, Daniel
Flaxman, Seth
Semenova, Elizaveta
Machine Learning
Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a flexible and statistically principled foundation for modelling spatiotemporal phenomena, but their $O(N^3)$ scaling makes them intractable for large datasets. Approximate methods such as variational inference (VI), inducing-point (sparse) GPs, low-rank kernel approximations (e.g., Nystrom methods and random Fourier features), and approximations such as INLA improve scalability but typically trade off accuracy, calibration, or modelling flexibility. We introduce DeepRV, a neural-network surrogate that replaces GP prior sampling, while closely matching full GP accuracy at inference including hyperparameter estimates, and reducing computational complexity to $O(N^2)$, increasing scalability and inference speed. DeepRV serves as a drop-in replacement for GP prior realisations in e.g. MCMC-based probabilistic programming pipelines, preserving full model flexibility. Across simulated benchmarks, non-separable spatiotemporal GPs, and a real-world application to education deprivation in London (n = 4,994 locations), DeepRV achieves the highest fidelity to exact GPs while substantially accelerating inference. Code is provided in the dl4bi Python package, with all experiments run on a single consumer-grade GPU to ensure accessibility for practitioners.
title DeepRV: Accelerating Spatiotemporal Inference with Pre-trained Neural Priors
topic Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.21473