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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.22435 |
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| _version_ | 1866918249322512384 |
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| author | Costa-Alves, Ian Gourdain, Nicolas Gallard, François Gazaix, Anne Kambiri, Yri Amandine Druot, Thierry |
| author_facet | Costa-Alves, Ian Gourdain, Nicolas Gallard, François Gazaix, Anne Kambiri, Yri Amandine Druot, Thierry |
| contents | Despite being considered a hard-to-abate sector, aviation's emissions will play an important role in long-term climate mitigation of transportation. The introduction of low-carbon energy carriers and the deployment of new aircraft in the current fleet are modeled as technology-centered decarbonization policies, while supply constraints in targeted market segments are modeled as demand-side policies. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are used to estimate trend-mitigation traffic demand and to limit the sectoral consumption of electricity and biomass. Mitigation scenarios are formulated as optimization problems, and three applications are demonstrated: no-policy baselines, single-policy optimization, and scenario-robust policies. Results show that the choice of energy carrier is highly dependent on assumptions regarding aircraft technology and the background energy system. Across all SSP-based scenarios, emissions peak by around 2040, but achieving alignment with the Paris Agreement requires either targeted demand management or additional low-carbon energy supply. The use of gradient-based optimization within a multidisciplinary framework enables the efficient resolution of these nonlinear, high-dimensional problems while reducing implementation effort. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_22435 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Numerical optimization of aviation decarbonization scenarios: balancing traffic and emissions with maturing energy carriers and aircraft technology Costa-Alves, Ian Gourdain, Nicolas Gallard, François Gazaix, Anne Kambiri, Yri Amandine Druot, Thierry Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Despite being considered a hard-to-abate sector, aviation's emissions will play an important role in long-term climate mitigation of transportation. The introduction of low-carbon energy carriers and the deployment of new aircraft in the current fleet are modeled as technology-centered decarbonization policies, while supply constraints in targeted market segments are modeled as demand-side policies. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are used to estimate trend-mitigation traffic demand and to limit the sectoral consumption of electricity and biomass. Mitigation scenarios are formulated as optimization problems, and three applications are demonstrated: no-policy baselines, single-policy optimization, and scenario-robust policies. Results show that the choice of energy carrier is highly dependent on assumptions regarding aircraft technology and the background energy system. Across all SSP-based scenarios, emissions peak by around 2040, but achieving alignment with the Paris Agreement requires either targeted demand management or additional low-carbon energy supply. The use of gradient-based optimization within a multidisciplinary framework enables the efficient resolution of these nonlinear, high-dimensional problems while reducing implementation effort. |
| title | Numerical optimization of aviation decarbonization scenarios: balancing traffic and emissions with maturing energy carriers and aircraft technology |
| topic | Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.22435 |