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Bayesian and Monte Carlo approaches to estimating uncertainty for the measurement of the bound-state $β$ decay of $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$

Fuente: arXiv

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Leckenby, G., Trassinelli, M., Chen, R. J., Sidhu, R. S., Glorius, J., Sanjari, M. S., Litvinov, Yu. A., Bai, M., Bosch, F., Brandau, C., Dickel, T., Dillmann, I., Dmytriiev, D., Faestermann, T., Forstner, O., Franczak, B., Geissel, H., Gernhaeuser, R., Gao, B. S., Griffin, C. J., Gumberidze, A., Haettner, E., Hess, R., Hillenbrand, P. -M., Kienle, P., Korten, W., Kozhuharov, Ch., Kuzminchuk, N., Litvinov, S., Menz, E. B., Morgenroth, T., Nociforo, C., Nolden, F., Petridis, N., Popp, U., Purushothaman, S., Reifarth, R., Scheidenberger, C., Spillmann, U., Steck, M., Stoehlker, Th., Tanaka, Y. K., Trotsenko, S., Varga, L., Wang, M., Weick, H., Woods, P. J., Yamaguchi, T., Zhang, Y. H., Zhao, J.
Format:	Preprint
Published:	2025
Subjects:	Nuclear Experiment
Online Access:	Acceder al recurso
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author	Leckenby, G. Trassinelli, M. Chen, R. J. Sidhu, R. S. Glorius, J. Sanjari, M. S. Litvinov, Yu. A. Bai, M. Bosch, F. Brandau, C. Dickel, T. Dillmann, I. Dmytriiev, D. Faestermann, T. Forstner, O. Franczak, B. Geissel, H. Gernhaeuser, R. Gao, B. S. Griffin, C. J. Gumberidze, A. Haettner, E. Hess, R. Hillenbrand, P. -M. Kienle, P. Korten, W. Kozhuharov, Ch. Kuzminchuk, N. Litvinov, S. Menz, E. B. Morgenroth, T. Nociforo, C. Nolden, F. Petridis, N. Popp, U. Purushothaman, S. Reifarth, R. Scheidenberger, C. Spillmann, U. Steck, M. Stoehlker, Th. Tanaka, Y. K. Trotsenko, S. Varga, L. Wang, M. Weick, H. Woods, P. J. Yamaguchi, T. Zhang, Y. H. Zhao, J.
author_facet	Leckenby, G. Trassinelli, M. Chen, R. J. Sidhu, R. S. Glorius, J. Sanjari, M. S. Litvinov, Yu. A. Bai, M. Bosch, F. Brandau, C. Dickel, T. Dillmann, I. Dmytriiev, D. Faestermann, T. Forstner, O. Franczak, B. Geissel, H. Gernhaeuser, R. Gao, B. S. Griffin, C. J. Gumberidze, A. Haettner, E. Hess, R. Hillenbrand, P. -M. Kienle, P. Korten, W. Kozhuharov, Ch. Kuzminchuk, N. Litvinov, S. Menz, E. B. Morgenroth, T. Nociforo, C. Nolden, F. Petridis, N. Popp, U. Purushothaman, S. Reifarth, R. Scheidenberger, C. Spillmann, U. Steck, M. Stoehlker, Th. Tanaka, Y. K. Trotsenko, S. Varga, L. Wang, M. Weick, H. Woods, P. J. Yamaguchi, T. Zhang, Y. H. Zhao, J.
contents	The measurement of the bound-state $β$ decay of $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$ at the Experimental Storage Ring at GSI, Darmstadt, has recently been reported with substantial impact on the use of $^{205}\mathrm{Pb}$ as an early Solar System chronometer and the low-energy measurement of the solar neutrino spectrum via the LOREX project. Due to the technical challenges in producing a high-purity $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$ secondary beam, a robust statistical method needed to be developed to estimate the variation in the contaminant $^{205}\mathrm{Pb}^{81+}$ produced in the fragmentation reaction, which was subsequently transmitted and stored in the ESR. Here we show that Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods produced comparable estimates for the contaminant variation, each with unique advantages and challenges given the complex statistical problems for this experiment. We recommend the adoption of such methods in future experiments that exhibit unknown statistical fluctuations.
format	Preprint
id	arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2503_22822
institution	arXiv
publishDate	2025
record_format	arxiv
spellingShingle	Bayesian and Monte Carlo approaches to estimating uncertainty for the measurement of the bound-state $β$ decay of $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$ Leckenby, G. Trassinelli, M. Chen, R. J. Sidhu, R. S. Glorius, J. Sanjari, M. S. Litvinov, Yu. A. Bai, M. Bosch, F. Brandau, C. Dickel, T. Dillmann, I. Dmytriiev, D. Faestermann, T. Forstner, O. Franczak, B. Geissel, H. Gernhaeuser, R. Gao, B. S. Griffin, C. J. Gumberidze, A. Haettner, E. Hess, R. Hillenbrand, P. -M. Kienle, P. Korten, W. Kozhuharov, Ch. Kuzminchuk, N. Litvinov, S. Menz, E. B. Morgenroth, T. Nociforo, C. Nolden, F. Petridis, N. Popp, U. Purushothaman, S. Reifarth, R. Scheidenberger, C. Spillmann, U. Steck, M. Stoehlker, Th. Tanaka, Y. K. Trotsenko, S. Varga, L. Wang, M. Weick, H. Woods, P. J. Yamaguchi, T. Zhang, Y. H. Zhao, J. Nuclear Experiment The measurement of the bound-state $β$ decay of $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$ at the Experimental Storage Ring at GSI, Darmstadt, has recently been reported with substantial impact on the use of $^{205}\mathrm{Pb}$ as an early Solar System chronometer and the low-energy measurement of the solar neutrino spectrum via the LOREX project. Due to the technical challenges in producing a high-purity $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$ secondary beam, a robust statistical method needed to be developed to estimate the variation in the contaminant $^{205}\mathrm{Pb}^{81+}$ produced in the fragmentation reaction, which was subsequently transmitted and stored in the ESR. Here we show that Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods produced comparable estimates for the contaminant variation, each with unique advantages and challenges given the complex statistical problems for this experiment. We recommend the adoption of such methods in future experiments that exhibit unknown statistical fluctuations.
title	Bayesian and Monte Carlo approaches to estimating uncertainty for the measurement of the bound-state $β$ decay of $^{205}\mathrm{Tl}^{81+}$
topic	Nuclear Experiment
url	https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.22822