Debiasing Continuous-time Nonlinear Autoregressions

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Kuang, Simon, Lin, Xinfan
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Kuang, Simon
Lin, Xinfan
author_facet Kuang, Simon
Lin, Xinfan
contents We study how to identify a class of continuous-time nonlinear systems defined by an ordinary differential equation affine in the unknown parameter. We define a notion of asymptotic consistency as $(n, h) \to (\infty, 0)$, and we achieve it using a family of direct methods where the first step is differentiating a noisy time series and the second step is a plug-in linear estimator. The first step, differentiation, is a signal processing adaptation of the nonparametric statistical technique of local polynomial regression. The second step, generalized linear regression, can be consistent using a least squares estimator, but we demonstrate two novel bias corrections that improve the accuracy for finite $h$. These methods significantly broaden the class of continuous-time systems that can be consistently estimated by direct methods.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2504_05525
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Debiasing Continuous-time Nonlinear Autoregressions
Kuang, Simon
Lin, Xinfan
Systems and Control
Statistics Theory
We study how to identify a class of continuous-time nonlinear systems defined by an ordinary differential equation affine in the unknown parameter. We define a notion of asymptotic consistency as $(n, h) \to (\infty, 0)$, and we achieve it using a family of direct methods where the first step is differentiating a noisy time series and the second step is a plug-in linear estimator. The first step, differentiation, is a signal processing adaptation of the nonparametric statistical technique of local polynomial regression. The second step, generalized linear regression, can be consistent using a least squares estimator, but we demonstrate two novel bias corrections that improve the accuracy for finite $h$. These methods significantly broaden the class of continuous-time systems that can be consistently estimated by direct methods.
title Debiasing Continuous-time Nonlinear Autoregressions
topic Systems and Control
Statistics Theory
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.05525