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Main Authors: Shu, Hailong, Song, Weiwei, Wang, Yue, Zhang, Jiping
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.06532
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author Shu, Hailong
Song, Weiwei
Wang, Yue
Zhang, Jiping
author_facet Shu, Hailong
Song, Weiwei
Wang, Yue
Zhang, Jiping
contents Wind direction forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing wind energy production, but faces significant challenges due to the circular nature of directional data, error accumulation in multi-step forecasting, and complex meteorological interactions. This paper presents a novel model, WaveHiTS, which integrates wavelet transform with Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series to address these challenges. Our approach decomposes wind direction into U-V components, applies wavelet transform to capture multi-scale frequency patterns, and utilizes a hierarchical structure to model temporal dependencies at multiple scales, effectively mitigating error propagation. Experiments conducted on real-world meteorological data from Inner Mongolia, China demonstrate that WaveHiTS significantly outperforms deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, GRU), transformer-based approaches (TFT, Informer, iTransformer), and hybrid models (EMD-LSTM). The proposed model achieves RMSE values of approximately 19.2°-19.4° compared to 56°-64° for deep learning recurrent models, maintaining consistent accuracy across all forecasting steps up to 60 minutes ahead. Moreover, WaveHiTS demonstrates superior robustness with vector correlation coefficients (VCC) of 0.985-0.987 and hit rates of 88.5%-90.1%, substantially outperforming baseline models. Ablation studies confirm that each component-wavelet transform, hierarchical structure, and U-V decomposition-contributes meaningfully to overall performance. These improvements in wind direction nowcasting have significant implications for enhancing wind turbine yaw control efficiency and grid integration of wind energy.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2504_06532
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle WaveHiTS: Wavelet-Enhanced Hierarchical Time Series Modeling for Wind Direction Nowcasting in Eastern Inner Mongolia
Shu, Hailong
Song, Weiwei
Wang, Yue
Zhang, Jiping
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Wind direction forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing wind energy production, but faces significant challenges due to the circular nature of directional data, error accumulation in multi-step forecasting, and complex meteorological interactions. This paper presents a novel model, WaveHiTS, which integrates wavelet transform with Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series to address these challenges. Our approach decomposes wind direction into U-V components, applies wavelet transform to capture multi-scale frequency patterns, and utilizes a hierarchical structure to model temporal dependencies at multiple scales, effectively mitigating error propagation. Experiments conducted on real-world meteorological data from Inner Mongolia, China demonstrate that WaveHiTS significantly outperforms deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, GRU), transformer-based approaches (TFT, Informer, iTransformer), and hybrid models (EMD-LSTM). The proposed model achieves RMSE values of approximately 19.2°-19.4° compared to 56°-64° for deep learning recurrent models, maintaining consistent accuracy across all forecasting steps up to 60 minutes ahead. Moreover, WaveHiTS demonstrates superior robustness with vector correlation coefficients (VCC) of 0.985-0.987 and hit rates of 88.5%-90.1%, substantially outperforming baseline models. Ablation studies confirm that each component-wavelet transform, hierarchical structure, and U-V decomposition-contributes meaningfully to overall performance. These improvements in wind direction nowcasting have significant implications for enhancing wind turbine yaw control efficiency and grid integration of wind energy.
title WaveHiTS: Wavelet-Enhanced Hierarchical Time Series Modeling for Wind Direction Nowcasting in Eastern Inner Mongolia
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.06532