In itinere infections covertly undermine localized epidemic control in metapopulations
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866912319652495360 |
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| author | Dilisante, Francesca Valgañón, Pablo Soriano-Paños, David Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús |
| author_facet | Dilisante, Francesca Valgañón, Pablo Soriano-Paños, David Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús |
| contents | Metapopulation models have traditionally assessed epidemic dynamics by emphasizing local in situ interactions within defined subpopulations, often neglecting transmission occurring during mobility phases in itinere. Here, we extend the Movement-Interaction-Return (MIR) metapopulation framework to explicitly include contagions acquired during transit, considering agents traveling along shared transportation networks. We reveal that incorporating in itinere contagion entails a notable reduction of the epidemic threshold and a pronounced delocalization of the epidemic trajectory, particularly significant in early-stage outbreaks. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2504_07849 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | In itinere infections covertly undermine localized epidemic control in metapopulations Dilisante, Francesca Valgañón, Pablo Soriano-Paños, David Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús Physics and Society Metapopulation models have traditionally assessed epidemic dynamics by emphasizing local in situ interactions within defined subpopulations, often neglecting transmission occurring during mobility phases in itinere. Here, we extend the Movement-Interaction-Return (MIR) metapopulation framework to explicitly include contagions acquired during transit, considering agents traveling along shared transportation networks. We reveal that incorporating in itinere contagion entails a notable reduction of the epidemic threshold and a pronounced delocalization of the epidemic trajectory, particularly significant in early-stage outbreaks. |
| title | In itinere infections covertly undermine localized epidemic control in metapopulations |
| topic | Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.07849 |