LLM-Enhanced Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Lee, Youngbin, Kim, Yejin, Kim, Juhyeong, Kim, Suin, Lee, Yongjae
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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_version_ 1866911218803933184
author Lee, Youngbin
Kim, Yejin
Kim, Juhyeong
Kim, Suin
Lee, Yongjae
author_facet Lee, Youngbin
Kim, Yejin
Kim, Juhyeong
Kim, Suin
Lee, Yongjae
contents The Black-Litterman model addresses the sensitivity issues of tra- ditional mean-variance optimization by incorporating investor views, but systematically generating these views remains a key challenge. This study proposes and validates a systematic frame- work that translates return forecasts and predictive uncertainty from Large Language Models (LLMs) into the core inputs for the Black-Litterman model: investor views and their confidence lev- els. Through a backtest on S&P 500 constituents, we demonstrate that portfolios driven by top-performing LLMs significantly out- perform traditional baselines in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms. Crucially, our analysis reveals that each LLM exhibits a dis- tinct and consistent investment style which is the primary driver of performance. We found that the selection of an LLM is therefore not a search for a single best forecaster, but a strategic choice of an investment style whose success is contingent on its alignment with the prevailing market regime. The source code and data are available at https://github.com/youngandbin/LLM-BLM.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2504_14345
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle LLM-Enhanced Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization
Lee, Youngbin
Kim, Yejin
Kim, Juhyeong
Kim, Suin
Lee, Yongjae
Portfolio Management
Artificial Intelligence
The Black-Litterman model addresses the sensitivity issues of tra- ditional mean-variance optimization by incorporating investor views, but systematically generating these views remains a key challenge. This study proposes and validates a systematic frame- work that translates return forecasts and predictive uncertainty from Large Language Models (LLMs) into the core inputs for the Black-Litterman model: investor views and their confidence lev- els. Through a backtest on S&P 500 constituents, we demonstrate that portfolios driven by top-performing LLMs significantly out- perform traditional baselines in both absolute and risk-adjusted terms. Crucially, our analysis reveals that each LLM exhibits a dis- tinct and consistent investment style which is the primary driver of performance. We found that the selection of an LLM is therefore not a search for a single best forecaster, but a strategic choice of an investment style whose success is contingent on its alignment with the prevailing market regime. The source code and data are available at https://github.com/youngandbin/LLM-BLM.
title LLM-Enhanced Black-Litterman Portfolio Optimization
topic Portfolio Management
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.14345