On DESI's DR2 exclusion of $Λ$CDM

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Cortês, Marina, Liddle, Andrew R
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Cortês, Marina
Liddle, Andrew R
author_facet Cortês, Marina
Liddle, Andrew R
contents The DESI collaboration, combining their Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data with cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy and supernovae data, have found significant indication against the $Λ$CDM cosmology. This can also be interpreted as the significance of the detection of the $w_a$ parameter that measures variation of the dark energy equation of state. DESI's DR2 article quotes exclusion of $Λ$CDM for combinations of BAO and CMB data with each of three different and overlapping supernovae compilations (at 2.8-sigma for Pantheon+, 3.8-sigma for Union3, and 4.2-sigma for DESY5). We show that one can neither choose amongst nor average over these three different significances. We demonstrate how a principled statistical combination yields a combined exclusion significance of 3.1-sigma. Further we argue that, faced with these competing significances, the most secure inference from the DESI DR2 results is the 3.1-sigma level exclusion of $Λ$CDM obtained from combining DESI+CMB alone, omitting supernovae.
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publishDate 2025
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spellingShingle On DESI's DR2 exclusion of $Λ$CDM
Cortês, Marina
Liddle, Andrew R
Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics
The DESI collaboration, combining their Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data with cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy and supernovae data, have found significant indication against the $Λ$CDM cosmology. This can also be interpreted as the significance of the detection of the $w_a$ parameter that measures variation of the dark energy equation of state. DESI's DR2 article quotes exclusion of $Λ$CDM for combinations of BAO and CMB data with each of three different and overlapping supernovae compilations (at 2.8-sigma for Pantheon+, 3.8-sigma for Union3, and 4.2-sigma for DESY5). We show that one can neither choose amongst nor average over these three different significances. We demonstrate how a principled statistical combination yields a combined exclusion significance of 3.1-sigma. Further we argue that, faced with these competing significances, the most secure inference from the DESI DR2 results is the 3.1-sigma level exclusion of $Λ$CDM obtained from combining DESI+CMB alone, omitting supernovae.
title On DESI's DR2 exclusion of $Λ$CDM
topic Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.15336