_version_ 1866915277181026304
author Merc, Jaroslav
Wyrzykowski, Łukasz
Beck, Paul G.
Mikołajczyk, Przemysław J.
Kotysz, Krzysztof
Zieliński, Paweł
Zola, Staszek
Kurowski, Sebastian
Ogłoza, Waldemar
Drozdz, Marek
Galdies, Charles
Hambsch, Franz-Josef
Brincat, Stephen M.
Joachimczyk, Barbara
Bronikowski, Mateusz
Japelj, Jure
Mihelcic, Matej
Carrasco, Josep Manel
Burgaz, Umut
Gurgul, Agnieszka
Bąkowska, Karolina
Hofbauer, Piotr
Szyszka, Krzysztof
Golonka, Jan
Qvam, Jan Kåre Trandem
Zdanavičius, Justas
Pakštienė, Erika
Maskoliūnas, Marius
Čepas, Vytautas
Pylypenko, Uliana
Moździerski, Dawid
Dubois, Franky
Vanaverbeke, Siegfried
Olszewska, Justyna M.
Liakos, Alexios
Stojanović, Milan
Damljanović, Goran
Popowicz, Adam
Marzec, Mateusz
Badura, Magdalena
Gil, Bartosz
Pucek, Alicja
Kowalska, Aleksandra
Szklarz, Mateusz
Kvernadze, Teimuraz
Reguitti, Andrea
Awiphan, Supachai
Dennefeld, Michel
Gazeas, Kosmas
author_facet Merc, Jaroslav
Wyrzykowski, Łukasz
Beck, Paul G.
Mikołajczyk, Przemysław J.
Kotysz, Krzysztof
Zieliński, Paweł
Zola, Staszek
Kurowski, Sebastian
Ogłoza, Waldemar
Drozdz, Marek
Galdies, Charles
Hambsch, Franz-Josef
Brincat, Stephen M.
Joachimczyk, Barbara
Bronikowski, Mateusz
Japelj, Jure
Mihelcic, Matej
Carrasco, Josep Manel
Burgaz, Umut
Gurgul, Agnieszka
Bąkowska, Karolina
Hofbauer, Piotr
Szyszka, Krzysztof
Golonka, Jan
Qvam, Jan Kåre Trandem
Zdanavičius, Justas
Pakštienė, Erika
Maskoliūnas, Marius
Čepas, Vytautas
Pylypenko, Uliana
Moździerski, Dawid
Dubois, Franky
Vanaverbeke, Siegfried
Olszewska, Justyna M.
Liakos, Alexios
Stojanović, Milan
Damljanović, Goran
Popowicz, Adam
Marzec, Mateusz
Badura, Magdalena
Gil, Bartosz
Pucek, Alicja
Kowalska, Aleksandra
Szklarz, Mateusz
Kvernadze, Teimuraz
Reguitti, Andrea
Awiphan, Supachai
Dennefeld, Michel
Gazeas, Kosmas
contents T CrB is a symbiotic recurrent nova that last erupted in 1946. Given its recurrence timescale of approximately 80 years, the next outburst is eagerly anticipated by the astronomical community. In this work, we analyse the optical light curves of T CrB, comparing recent photometric evolution with historical data to evaluate potential predictive indicators of nova eruptions. Although the "super-active" phases preceding both the 1946 and anticipated eruptions are strikingly similar, the subsequent photometric behaviour differs. We find that the decline in brightness observed in 2023, interpreted by some as a "pre-eruption dip", deviates from the deep minimum recorded prior to the 1946 event and does not reliably predict the eruption timing. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations indicate that the system is returning to a high-accretion state. Given this, an eruption may be imminent, even without distinct precursors. While the next eruption of T CrB will be a major scientific event, its expected peak brightness of $V \sim 2$ mag highlights the importance of setting realistic public expectations for what will be a visually modest, yet astrophysically very significant, celestial event.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2504_20592
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Is the Symbiotic Recurrent Nova T CrB Late? Recent Photometric Evolution and Comparison with Past Pre-Outburst Behaviour
Merc, Jaroslav
Wyrzykowski, Łukasz
Beck, Paul G.
Mikołajczyk, Przemysław J.
Kotysz, Krzysztof
Zieliński, Paweł
Zola, Staszek
Kurowski, Sebastian
Ogłoza, Waldemar
Drozdz, Marek
Galdies, Charles
Hambsch, Franz-Josef
Brincat, Stephen M.
Joachimczyk, Barbara
Bronikowski, Mateusz
Japelj, Jure
Mihelcic, Matej
Carrasco, Josep Manel
Burgaz, Umut
Gurgul, Agnieszka
Bąkowska, Karolina
Hofbauer, Piotr
Szyszka, Krzysztof
Golonka, Jan
Qvam, Jan Kåre Trandem
Zdanavičius, Justas
Pakštienė, Erika
Maskoliūnas, Marius
Čepas, Vytautas
Pylypenko, Uliana
Moździerski, Dawid
Dubois, Franky
Vanaverbeke, Siegfried
Olszewska, Justyna M.
Liakos, Alexios
Stojanović, Milan
Damljanović, Goran
Popowicz, Adam
Marzec, Mateusz
Badura, Magdalena
Gil, Bartosz
Pucek, Alicja
Kowalska, Aleksandra
Szklarz, Mateusz
Kvernadze, Teimuraz
Reguitti, Andrea
Awiphan, Supachai
Dennefeld, Michel
Gazeas, Kosmas
Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
T CrB is a symbiotic recurrent nova that last erupted in 1946. Given its recurrence timescale of approximately 80 years, the next outburst is eagerly anticipated by the astronomical community. In this work, we analyse the optical light curves of T CrB, comparing recent photometric evolution with historical data to evaluate potential predictive indicators of nova eruptions. Although the "super-active" phases preceding both the 1946 and anticipated eruptions are strikingly similar, the subsequent photometric behaviour differs. We find that the decline in brightness observed in 2023, interpreted by some as a "pre-eruption dip", deviates from the deep minimum recorded prior to the 1946 event and does not reliably predict the eruption timing. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations indicate that the system is returning to a high-accretion state. Given this, an eruption may be imminent, even without distinct precursors. While the next eruption of T CrB will be a major scientific event, its expected peak brightness of $V \sim 2$ mag highlights the importance of setting realistic public expectations for what will be a visually modest, yet astrophysically very significant, celestial event.
title Is the Symbiotic Recurrent Nova T CrB Late? Recent Photometric Evolution and Comparison with Past Pre-Outburst Behaviour
topic Solar and Stellar Astrophysics
High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.20592