Is the Symbiotic Recurrent Nova T CrB Late? Recent Photometric Evolution and Comparison with Past Pre-Outburst Behaviour
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2025
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| author | Merc, Jaroslav Wyrzykowski, Łukasz Beck, Paul G. Mikołajczyk, Przemysław J. Kotysz, Krzysztof Zieliński, Paweł Zola, Staszek Kurowski, Sebastian Ogłoza, Waldemar Drozdz, Marek Galdies, Charles Hambsch, Franz-Josef Brincat, Stephen M. Joachimczyk, Barbara Bronikowski, Mateusz Japelj, Jure Mihelcic, Matej Carrasco, Josep Manel Burgaz, Umut Gurgul, Agnieszka Bąkowska, Karolina Hofbauer, Piotr Szyszka, Krzysztof Golonka, Jan Qvam, Jan Kåre Trandem Zdanavičius, Justas Pakštienė, Erika Maskoliūnas, Marius Čepas, Vytautas Pylypenko, Uliana Moździerski, Dawid Dubois, Franky Vanaverbeke, Siegfried Olszewska, Justyna M. Liakos, Alexios Stojanović, Milan Damljanović, Goran Popowicz, Adam Marzec, Mateusz Badura, Magdalena Gil, Bartosz Pucek, Alicja Kowalska, Aleksandra Szklarz, Mateusz Kvernadze, Teimuraz Reguitti, Andrea Awiphan, Supachai Dennefeld, Michel Gazeas, Kosmas |
| author_facet | Merc, Jaroslav Wyrzykowski, Łukasz Beck, Paul G. Mikołajczyk, Przemysław J. Kotysz, Krzysztof Zieliński, Paweł Zola, Staszek Kurowski, Sebastian Ogłoza, Waldemar Drozdz, Marek Galdies, Charles Hambsch, Franz-Josef Brincat, Stephen M. Joachimczyk, Barbara Bronikowski, Mateusz Japelj, Jure Mihelcic, Matej Carrasco, Josep Manel Burgaz, Umut Gurgul, Agnieszka Bąkowska, Karolina Hofbauer, Piotr Szyszka, Krzysztof Golonka, Jan Qvam, Jan Kåre Trandem Zdanavičius, Justas Pakštienė, Erika Maskoliūnas, Marius Čepas, Vytautas Pylypenko, Uliana Moździerski, Dawid Dubois, Franky Vanaverbeke, Siegfried Olszewska, Justyna M. Liakos, Alexios Stojanović, Milan Damljanović, Goran Popowicz, Adam Marzec, Mateusz Badura, Magdalena Gil, Bartosz Pucek, Alicja Kowalska, Aleksandra Szklarz, Mateusz Kvernadze, Teimuraz Reguitti, Andrea Awiphan, Supachai Dennefeld, Michel Gazeas, Kosmas |
| contents | T CrB is a symbiotic recurrent nova that last erupted in 1946. Given its recurrence timescale of approximately 80 years, the next outburst is eagerly anticipated by the astronomical community. In this work, we analyse the optical light curves of T CrB, comparing recent photometric evolution with historical data to evaluate potential predictive indicators of nova eruptions. Although the "super-active" phases preceding both the 1946 and anticipated eruptions are strikingly similar, the subsequent photometric behaviour differs. We find that the decline in brightness observed in 2023, interpreted by some as a "pre-eruption dip", deviates from the deep minimum recorded prior to the 1946 event and does not reliably predict the eruption timing. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations indicate that the system is returning to a high-accretion state. Given this, an eruption may be imminent, even without distinct precursors. While the next eruption of T CrB will be a major scientific event, its expected peak brightness of $V \sim 2$ mag highlights the importance of setting realistic public expectations for what will be a visually modest, yet astrophysically very significant, celestial event. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2504_20592 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Is the Symbiotic Recurrent Nova T CrB Late? Recent Photometric Evolution and Comparison with Past Pre-Outburst Behaviour Merc, Jaroslav Wyrzykowski, Łukasz Beck, Paul G. Mikołajczyk, Przemysław J. Kotysz, Krzysztof Zieliński, Paweł Zola, Staszek Kurowski, Sebastian Ogłoza, Waldemar Drozdz, Marek Galdies, Charles Hambsch, Franz-Josef Brincat, Stephen M. Joachimczyk, Barbara Bronikowski, Mateusz Japelj, Jure Mihelcic, Matej Carrasco, Josep Manel Burgaz, Umut Gurgul, Agnieszka Bąkowska, Karolina Hofbauer, Piotr Szyszka, Krzysztof Golonka, Jan Qvam, Jan Kåre Trandem Zdanavičius, Justas Pakštienė, Erika Maskoliūnas, Marius Čepas, Vytautas Pylypenko, Uliana Moździerski, Dawid Dubois, Franky Vanaverbeke, Siegfried Olszewska, Justyna M. Liakos, Alexios Stojanović, Milan Damljanović, Goran Popowicz, Adam Marzec, Mateusz Badura, Magdalena Gil, Bartosz Pucek, Alicja Kowalska, Aleksandra Szklarz, Mateusz Kvernadze, Teimuraz Reguitti, Andrea Awiphan, Supachai Dennefeld, Michel Gazeas, Kosmas Solar and Stellar Astrophysics High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena T CrB is a symbiotic recurrent nova that last erupted in 1946. Given its recurrence timescale of approximately 80 years, the next outburst is eagerly anticipated by the astronomical community. In this work, we analyse the optical light curves of T CrB, comparing recent photometric evolution with historical data to evaluate potential predictive indicators of nova eruptions. Although the "super-active" phases preceding both the 1946 and anticipated eruptions are strikingly similar, the subsequent photometric behaviour differs. We find that the decline in brightness observed in 2023, interpreted by some as a "pre-eruption dip", deviates from the deep minimum recorded prior to the 1946 event and does not reliably predict the eruption timing. Recent photometric and spectroscopic observations indicate that the system is returning to a high-accretion state. Given this, an eruption may be imminent, even without distinct precursors. While the next eruption of T CrB will be a major scientific event, its expected peak brightness of $V \sim 2$ mag highlights the importance of setting realistic public expectations for what will be a visually modest, yet astrophysically very significant, celestial event. |
| title | Is the Symbiotic Recurrent Nova T CrB Late? Recent Photometric Evolution and Comparison with Past Pre-Outburst Behaviour |
| topic | Solar and Stellar Astrophysics High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.20592 |