Construct to Commitment: The Effect of Narratives on Economic Growth
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866911195777204224 |
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| author | Jiang, Hanyuan Man, Yi |
| author_facet | Jiang, Hanyuan Man, Yi |
| contents | We study how government-led narratives through mass media evolve from construct, a mechanism for framing expectations, into commitment, a sustainable pillar for growth. We propose the "Narratives-Construct-Commitment (NCC)" framework outlining the mechanism and institutionalization of narratives, and formalize it as a dynamic Bayesian game. Using the Innovation-Driven Development Strategy (2016) as a case study, we identify the narrative shock from high-frequency financial data and trace its impact using local projection method. By shaping expectations, credible narratives institutionalize investment incentives, channel resources into R&D, and facilitate sustained improvements in total factor productivity (TFP). Our findings strive to provide insights into the New Quality Productive Forces initiative, highlighting the role of narratives in transforming vision into tangible economic growth. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2504_21060 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Construct to Commitment: The Effect of Narratives on Economic Growth Jiang, Hanyuan Man, Yi General Economics Economics Computer Science and Game Theory Social and Information Networks Econometrics Theoretical Economics Optimization and Control Physics and Society I.2.6; I.2.11; I.6.5; J.4; H.2.8; F.2.2; G.1.6 We study how government-led narratives through mass media evolve from construct, a mechanism for framing expectations, into commitment, a sustainable pillar for growth. We propose the "Narratives-Construct-Commitment (NCC)" framework outlining the mechanism and institutionalization of narratives, and formalize it as a dynamic Bayesian game. Using the Innovation-Driven Development Strategy (2016) as a case study, we identify the narrative shock from high-frequency financial data and trace its impact using local projection method. By shaping expectations, credible narratives institutionalize investment incentives, channel resources into R&D, and facilitate sustained improvements in total factor productivity (TFP). Our findings strive to provide insights into the New Quality Productive Forces initiative, highlighting the role of narratives in transforming vision into tangible economic growth. |
| title | Construct to Commitment: The Effect of Narratives on Economic Growth |
| topic | General Economics Economics Computer Science and Game Theory Social and Information Networks Econometrics Theoretical Economics Optimization and Control Physics and Society I.2.6; I.2.11; I.6.5; J.4; H.2.8; F.2.2; G.1.6 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.21060 |