Gaussian Cumulative Prospect Theory

Fuente: arXiv
Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Motte, Mederic
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1866915273267740672
author Motte, Mederic
author_facet Motte, Mederic
contents We propose a novel parametrization of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), as developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, that yields an explicit gamble valuation formula for Gaussian reward distributions. Specifically, we define parametric functions $ v_θ $, $ w^{-}_θ $, and $ w^{+}_θ $ satisfying three key properties. The first, \emph{validity}, ensures that for any parameter $θ$, the functions conform to the qualitative principles of CPT: $ v_θ $ is concave over gains and convex over losses with a steeper slope for losses; $ w^{-}_θ $ and $ w^{+}_θ $ are increasing, exhibit inverse S-shaped curves, and map 0 to 0 and 1 to 1. The second, \emph{richness}, guarantees that the parametrization is expressive enough to capture a wide range of behaviors: $ v_θ $ can exhibit arbitrary asymptotic behavior and convergence rates, while $ w^{-}_θ $ and $ w^{+}_θ $ can achieve any specified crossover points and slopes. The third, \emph{explicit valuation}, ensures that for any $θ$, the CPT valuation of a Gaussian-distributed gamble (with arbitrary mean and variance) can be computed in closed form -- enabling efficient approximations for bell-shaped reward distributions. This framework is designed for scalable and rapid computation, making it particularly suited for applications involving large populations. We demonstrate its practicality through two illustrative examples in population-level CPT modeling.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_02267
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Gaussian Cumulative Prospect Theory
Motte, Mederic
Probability
60A05, 60E05, 91B06, 91B16, 62C05
We propose a novel parametrization of Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT), as developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, that yields an explicit gamble valuation formula for Gaussian reward distributions. Specifically, we define parametric functions $ v_θ $, $ w^{-}_θ $, and $ w^{+}_θ $ satisfying three key properties. The first, \emph{validity}, ensures that for any parameter $θ$, the functions conform to the qualitative principles of CPT: $ v_θ $ is concave over gains and convex over losses with a steeper slope for losses; $ w^{-}_θ $ and $ w^{+}_θ $ are increasing, exhibit inverse S-shaped curves, and map 0 to 0 and 1 to 1. The second, \emph{richness}, guarantees that the parametrization is expressive enough to capture a wide range of behaviors: $ v_θ $ can exhibit arbitrary asymptotic behavior and convergence rates, while $ w^{-}_θ $ and $ w^{+}_θ $ can achieve any specified crossover points and slopes. The third, \emph{explicit valuation}, ensures that for any $θ$, the CPT valuation of a Gaussian-distributed gamble (with arbitrary mean and variance) can be computed in closed form -- enabling efficient approximations for bell-shaped reward distributions. This framework is designed for scalable and rapid computation, making it particularly suited for applications involving large populations. We demonstrate its practicality through two illustrative examples in population-level CPT modeling.
title Gaussian Cumulative Prospect Theory
topic Probability
60A05, 60E05, 91B06, 91B16, 62C05
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.02267