Strategic Effort and Bandwagon Effects in Finite Multi-Stage Games with Non-Linear Externalities: Evidence from Triathlon
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866912368509845504 |
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| author | Reichel, Felix |
| author_facet | Reichel, Felix |
| contents | This paper examines strategic effort and positioning choices resulting in bandwagon effects under externalities in finite multi-stage games using causal evidence from triathlon (Reichel, 2025). Focusing on open-water swim drafting where athletes reduce drag most effectively by swimming directly behind peerswe estimate its performance effects through a structural contest framework with endogenous, deterministic effort and drafting position. Leveraging exogenous variation from COVID-19 drafting bans in Austrian triathlons, we apply a panel leave-one-out (LOO/LOTO) peer ability instrumental variables (IV) strategy to isolate the causal non-linear effect of drafting. Results from restricted sample analysis and pooled estimated bandwagon IV effects show substantial and nonlinear gains: in small (group size below 10) drafting swim groups/clusters, each deeper position improves finishing rank on average by over 30%, with rapidly diminishing returns in larger groups. Leading however is consistently more costly than optimal positioning, aligning with theoretical predictions of energy expenditure (metabolic costs). |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_03247 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Strategic Effort and Bandwagon Effects in Finite Multi-Stage Games with Non-Linear Externalities: Evidence from Triathlon Reichel, Felix General Economics Economics This paper examines strategic effort and positioning choices resulting in bandwagon effects under externalities in finite multi-stage games using causal evidence from triathlon (Reichel, 2025). Focusing on open-water swim drafting where athletes reduce drag most effectively by swimming directly behind peerswe estimate its performance effects through a structural contest framework with endogenous, deterministic effort and drafting position. Leveraging exogenous variation from COVID-19 drafting bans in Austrian triathlons, we apply a panel leave-one-out (LOO/LOTO) peer ability instrumental variables (IV) strategy to isolate the causal non-linear effect of drafting. Results from restricted sample analysis and pooled estimated bandwagon IV effects show substantial and nonlinear gains: in small (group size below 10) drafting swim groups/clusters, each deeper position improves finishing rank on average by over 30%, with rapidly diminishing returns in larger groups. Leading however is consistently more costly than optimal positioning, aligning with theoretical predictions of energy expenditure (metabolic costs). |
| title | Strategic Effort and Bandwagon Effects in Finite Multi-Stage Games with Non-Linear Externalities: Evidence from Triathlon |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.03247 |