Preventing SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events with antiviral intranasal sprays
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915286100213760 |
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| author | Booth, George Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos Rice, Keira L Frallicciardi, Jacopo Magyarics, Zoltán de Wolf, Frank Goudsmit, Jaap Beukenhorst, Anna L Anderson, Roy |
| author_facet | Booth, George Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos Rice, Keira L Frallicciardi, Jacopo Magyarics, Zoltán de Wolf, Frank Goudsmit, Jaap Beukenhorst, Anna L Anderson, Roy |
| contents | Superspreading events are known to disproportionally contribute to onwards transmission of epidemic and pandemic viruses. Preventing infections at a small number of high-transmission settings is therefore an attractive public health goal. Here, we use deterministic and stochastic mathematical modelling to quantify the impact of intranasal sprays in containing outbreaks at a known superspreading event (the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 outbreak at the Diamond Princess cruise ship) and a conference event that led to extensive transmission.
We find that in the Diamond Princess cruise ship case study, there exists a 7-14-day window of opportunity for widespread prophylactic spray usage to significantly impact the number of infections averted. Given an immediate response to a known SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, alongside testing and social distancing measures, prophylactic efficacy and coverage greater than 65% could reduce the average number of infections by over 90%. In the conference case study, in the absence of additional public health interventions, analyses suggest much higher prophylactic efficacies and coverages are required to achieve a similar outcome. However, prophylactic use can half an individual's probability of being infected, and significantly reduce the probability of developing a severe infection. These results suggest that at a known potential superspreading event, early use of intranasal sprays can complement quarantining measures and significantly suppress a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, even at suboptimal coverage. At a potential superspreading event of short duration, intranasal sprays can reduce individuals' risk of infection, but cannot prevent all infections or onwards community transmission. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_08053 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Preventing SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events with antiviral intranasal sprays Booth, George Hadjichrysanthou, Christoforos Rice, Keira L Frallicciardi, Jacopo Magyarics, Zoltán de Wolf, Frank Goudsmit, Jaap Beukenhorst, Anna L Anderson, Roy Quantitative Methods Superspreading events are known to disproportionally contribute to onwards transmission of epidemic and pandemic viruses. Preventing infections at a small number of high-transmission settings is therefore an attractive public health goal. Here, we use deterministic and stochastic mathematical modelling to quantify the impact of intranasal sprays in containing outbreaks at a known superspreading event (the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 outbreak at the Diamond Princess cruise ship) and a conference event that led to extensive transmission. We find that in the Diamond Princess cruise ship case study, there exists a 7-14-day window of opportunity for widespread prophylactic spray usage to significantly impact the number of infections averted. Given an immediate response to a known SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, alongside testing and social distancing measures, prophylactic efficacy and coverage greater than 65% could reduce the average number of infections by over 90%. In the conference case study, in the absence of additional public health interventions, analyses suggest much higher prophylactic efficacies and coverages are required to achieve a similar outcome. However, prophylactic use can half an individual's probability of being infected, and significantly reduce the probability of developing a severe infection. These results suggest that at a known potential superspreading event, early use of intranasal sprays can complement quarantining measures and significantly suppress a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, even at suboptimal coverage. At a potential superspreading event of short duration, intranasal sprays can reduce individuals' risk of infection, but cannot prevent all infections or onwards community transmission. |
| title | Preventing SARS-CoV-2 superspreading events with antiviral intranasal sprays |
| topic | Quantitative Methods |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08053 |