Forecasting Intraday Volume in Equity Markets with Machine Learning

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Cucuringu, Mihai, Li, Kang, Zhang, Chao
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Cucuringu, Mihai
Li, Kang
Zhang, Chao
author_facet Cucuringu, Mihai
Li, Kang
Zhang, Chao
contents This study focuses on forecasting intraday trading volumes, a crucial component for portfolio implementation, especially in high-frequency (HF) trading environments. Given the current scarcity of flexible methods in this area, we employ a suite of machine learning (ML) models enriched with numerous HF predictors to enhance the predictability of intraday trading volumes. Our findings reveal that intraday stock trading volume is highly predictable, especially with ML and considering commonality. Additionally, we assess the economic benefits of accurate volume forecasting through Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) strategies. The results demonstrate that precise intraday forecasting offers substantial advantages, providing valuable insights for traders to optimize their strategies.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_08180
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Forecasting Intraday Volume in Equity Markets with Machine Learning
Cucuringu, Mihai
Li, Kang
Zhang, Chao
Computational Finance
Statistical Finance
This study focuses on forecasting intraday trading volumes, a crucial component for portfolio implementation, especially in high-frequency (HF) trading environments. Given the current scarcity of flexible methods in this area, we employ a suite of machine learning (ML) models enriched with numerous HF predictors to enhance the predictability of intraday trading volumes. Our findings reveal that intraday stock trading volume is highly predictable, especially with ML and considering commonality. Additionally, we assess the economic benefits of accurate volume forecasting through Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) strategies. The results demonstrate that precise intraday forecasting offers substantial advantages, providing valuable insights for traders to optimize their strategies.
title Forecasting Intraday Volume in Equity Markets with Machine Learning
topic Computational Finance
Statistical Finance
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08180