Contrastive Normalizing Flows for Uncertainty-Aware Parameter Estimation
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915286501818368 |
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| author | Elsharkawy, Ibrahim Kahn, Yonatan |
| author_facet | Elsharkawy, Ibrahim Kahn, Yonatan |
| contents | Estimating physical parameters from data is a crucial application of machine learning (ML) in the physical sciences. However, systematic uncertainties, such as detector miscalibration, induce data distribution distortions that can erode statistical precision. In both high-energy physics (HEP) and broader ML contexts, achieving uncertainty-aware parameter estimation under these domain shifts remains an open problem. In this work, we address this challenge of uncertainty-aware parameter estimation for a broad set of tasks critical for HEP. We introduce a novel approach based on Contrastive Normalizing Flows (CNFs), which achieves top performance on the HiggsML Uncertainty Challenge dataset. Building on the insight that a binary classifier can approximate the model parameter likelihood ratio, we address the practical limitations of expressivity and the high cost of simulating high-dimensional parameter grids by embedding data and parameters in a learned CNF mapping. This mapping yields a tunable contrastive distribution that enables robust classification under shifted data distributions. Through a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that CNFs, when coupled with a classifier and established frequentist techniques, provide principled parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification through classification that is robust to data distribution distortions. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_08709 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Contrastive Normalizing Flows for Uncertainty-Aware Parameter Estimation Elsharkawy, Ibrahim Kahn, Yonatan Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability Machine Learning High Energy Physics - Experiment High Energy Physics - Phenomenology Estimating physical parameters from data is a crucial application of machine learning (ML) in the physical sciences. However, systematic uncertainties, such as detector miscalibration, induce data distribution distortions that can erode statistical precision. In both high-energy physics (HEP) and broader ML contexts, achieving uncertainty-aware parameter estimation under these domain shifts remains an open problem. In this work, we address this challenge of uncertainty-aware parameter estimation for a broad set of tasks critical for HEP. We introduce a novel approach based on Contrastive Normalizing Flows (CNFs), which achieves top performance on the HiggsML Uncertainty Challenge dataset. Building on the insight that a binary classifier can approximate the model parameter likelihood ratio, we address the practical limitations of expressivity and the high cost of simulating high-dimensional parameter grids by embedding data and parameters in a learned CNF mapping. This mapping yields a tunable contrastive distribution that enables robust classification under shifted data distributions. Through a combination of theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that CNFs, when coupled with a classifier and established frequentist techniques, provide principled parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification through classification that is robust to data distribution distortions. |
| title | Contrastive Normalizing Flows for Uncertainty-Aware Parameter Estimation |
| topic | Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability Machine Learning High Energy Physics - Experiment High Energy Physics - Phenomenology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08709 |