Ornithologist: Towards Trustworthy "Reasoning" about Central Bank Communications
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autore principale: | |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866916736880607232 |
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| author | Jones, Dominic Zaun Eu |
| author_facet | Jones, Dominic Zaun Eu |
| contents | I develop Ornithologist, a weakly-supervised textual classification system and measure the hawkishness and dovishness of central bank text. Ornithologist uses ``taxonomy-guided reasoning'', guiding a large language model with human-authored decision trees. This increases the transparency and explainability of the system and makes it accessible to non-experts. It also reduces hallucination risk. Since it requires less supervision than traditional classification systems, it can more easily be applied to other problems or sources of text (e.g. news) without much modification. Ornithologist measurements of hawkishness and dovishness of RBA communication carry information about the future of the cash rate path and of market expectations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_09083 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Ornithologist: Towards Trustworthy "Reasoning" about Central Bank Communications Jones, Dominic Zaun Eu General Economics Economics Computation and Language J.4; I.2.7 I develop Ornithologist, a weakly-supervised textual classification system and measure the hawkishness and dovishness of central bank text. Ornithologist uses ``taxonomy-guided reasoning'', guiding a large language model with human-authored decision trees. This increases the transparency and explainability of the system and makes it accessible to non-experts. It also reduces hallucination risk. Since it requires less supervision than traditional classification systems, it can more easily be applied to other problems or sources of text (e.g. news) without much modification. Ornithologist measurements of hawkishness and dovishness of RBA communication carry information about the future of the cash rate path and of market expectations. |
| title | Ornithologist: Towards Trustworthy "Reasoning" about Central Bank Communications |
| topic | General Economics Economics Computation and Language J.4; I.2.7 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.09083 |