Observational causality by states and interaction type for scientific discovery

Fuente: arXiv
Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Martínez-Sánchez, Álvaro, Lozano-Durán, Adrián
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
Schlagworte:
Online-Zugang:
Tags: Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
_version_ 1866916876946243584
author Martínez-Sánchez, Álvaro
Lozano-Durán, Adrián
author_facet Martínez-Sánchez, Álvaro
Lozano-Durán, Adrián
contents Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of the interacting variables. In this work, we introduce a state-aware causal inference method that quantifies causality in terms of information gain about future states. The effectiveness of the proposed approach stems from two key features: its ability to characterize causal influence as a function of system state, and its capacity to distinguish between redundant and synergistic interactions. The method is validated across a range of benchmark cases in which the direction and strength of causality evolve in a prescribed manner with the state of the system. We further demonstrate the applicability of our approach in two real scenarios: the interaction between motions across scales in a turbulent boundary layer, and the Walker circulation phenomenon in tropical Pacific climate dynamics. Our results show that, without accounting for state-dependent causality as well as redundant and synergistic effects, traditional approaches to causal inference may lead to incomplete or misleading conclusions.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_10878
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Observational causality by states and interaction type for scientific discovery
Martínez-Sánchez, Álvaro
Lozano-Durán, Adrián
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Fluid Dynamics
Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of the interacting variables. In this work, we introduce a state-aware causal inference method that quantifies causality in terms of information gain about future states. The effectiveness of the proposed approach stems from two key features: its ability to characterize causal influence as a function of system state, and its capacity to distinguish between redundant and synergistic interactions. The method is validated across a range of benchmark cases in which the direction and strength of causality evolve in a prescribed manner with the state of the system. We further demonstrate the applicability of our approach in two real scenarios: the interaction between motions across scales in a turbulent boundary layer, and the Walker circulation phenomenon in tropical Pacific climate dynamics. Our results show that, without accounting for state-dependent causality as well as redundant and synergistic effects, traditional approaches to causal inference may lead to incomplete or misleading conclusions.
title Observational causality by states and interaction type for scientific discovery
topic Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Fluid Dynamics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.10878