Framing Causal Questions in Sports Analytics: A Case Study of Crossing in Soccer
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arXiv
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866915291603140608 |
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| author | Alam, Shomoita Moodie, Erica E. M. Wu, Lucas Y. Swartz, Tim B. |
| author_facet | Alam, Shomoita Moodie, Erica E. M. Wu, Lucas Y. Swartz, Tim B. |
| contents | Causal inference has become an accepted analytic framework in settings where experimentation is impossible, which is frequently the case in sports analytics, particularly for studying in-game tactics. However, subtle differences in implementation can lead to important differences in interpretation. In this work, we provide a case study to demonstrate the utility and the nuance of these approaches. Motivated by a case study of crossing in soccer, two causal questions are considered: the overall impact of crossing on shot creation (Average Treatment Effect, ATE) and its impact in plays where crossing was actually attempted (Average Treatment Effect on the Treated, ATT). Using data from Shandong Taishan Luneng Football Club's 2017 season, we demonstrate how distinct matching strategies are used for different estimation targets - the ATE and ATT - though both aim to eliminate any spurious relationship between crossing and shot creation. Results suggest crossing yields a 1.6% additive increase in shot probability overall compared to not crossing (ATE), whereas the ATT is 5.0%. We discuss what insights can be gained from each estimand, and provide examples where one may be preferred over the alternative. Understanding and clearly framing analytics questions through a causal lens ensure rigorous analyses of complex questions. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_11841 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Framing Causal Questions in Sports Analytics: A Case Study of Crossing in Soccer Alam, Shomoita Moodie, Erica E. M. Wu, Lucas Y. Swartz, Tim B. Applications Causal inference has become an accepted analytic framework in settings where experimentation is impossible, which is frequently the case in sports analytics, particularly for studying in-game tactics. However, subtle differences in implementation can lead to important differences in interpretation. In this work, we provide a case study to demonstrate the utility and the nuance of these approaches. Motivated by a case study of crossing in soccer, two causal questions are considered: the overall impact of crossing on shot creation (Average Treatment Effect, ATE) and its impact in plays where crossing was actually attempted (Average Treatment Effect on the Treated, ATT). Using data from Shandong Taishan Luneng Football Club's 2017 season, we demonstrate how distinct matching strategies are used for different estimation targets - the ATE and ATT - though both aim to eliminate any spurious relationship between crossing and shot creation. Results suggest crossing yields a 1.6% additive increase in shot probability overall compared to not crossing (ATE), whereas the ATT is 5.0%. We discuss what insights can be gained from each estimand, and provide examples where one may be preferred over the alternative. Understanding and clearly framing analytics questions through a causal lens ensure rigorous analyses of complex questions. |
| title | Framing Causal Questions in Sports Analytics: A Case Study of Crossing in Soccer |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.11841 |