How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| author | Gidney, Craig |
| author_facet | Gidney, Craig |
| contents | Planning the transition to quantum-safe cryptosystems requires understanding the cost of quantum attacks on vulnerable cryptosystems. In Gidney+Ekerå 2019, I co-published an estimate stating that 2048 bit RSA integers could be factored in eight hours by a quantum computer with 20 million noisy qubits. In this paper, I substantially reduce the number of qubits required. I estimate that a 2048 bit RSA integer could be factored in less than a week by a quantum computer with less than a million noisy qubits. I make the same assumptions as in 2019: a square grid of qubits with nearest neighbor connections, a uniform gate error rate of $0.1\%$, a surface code cycle time of 1 microsecond, and a control system reaction time of $10$ microseconds.
The qubit count reduction comes mainly from using approximate residue arithmetic (Chevignard+Fouque+Schrottenloher 2024), from storing idle logical qubits with yoked surface codes (Gidney+Newman+Brooks+Jones 2023), and from allocating less space to magic state distillation by using magic state cultivation (Gidney+Shutty+Jones 2024). The longer runtime is mainly due to performing more Toffoli gates and using fewer magic state factories compared to Gidney+Ekerå 2019. That said, I reduce the Toffoli count by over 100x compared to Chevignard+Fouque+Schrottenloher 2024. |
| format | Preprint |
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arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_15917 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits Gidney, Craig Quantum Physics Planning the transition to quantum-safe cryptosystems requires understanding the cost of quantum attacks on vulnerable cryptosystems. In Gidney+Ekerå 2019, I co-published an estimate stating that 2048 bit RSA integers could be factored in eight hours by a quantum computer with 20 million noisy qubits. In this paper, I substantially reduce the number of qubits required. I estimate that a 2048 bit RSA integer could be factored in less than a week by a quantum computer with less than a million noisy qubits. I make the same assumptions as in 2019: a square grid of qubits with nearest neighbor connections, a uniform gate error rate of $0.1\%$, a surface code cycle time of 1 microsecond, and a control system reaction time of $10$ microseconds. The qubit count reduction comes mainly from using approximate residue arithmetic (Chevignard+Fouque+Schrottenloher 2024), from storing idle logical qubits with yoked surface codes (Gidney+Newman+Brooks+Jones 2023), and from allocating less space to magic state distillation by using magic state cultivation (Gidney+Shutty+Jones 2024). The longer runtime is mainly due to performing more Toffoli gates and using fewer magic state factories compared to Gidney+Ekerå 2019. That said, I reduce the Toffoli count by over 100x compared to Chevignard+Fouque+Schrottenloher 2024. |
| title | How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits |
| topic | Quantum Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917 |