Modeling the Path of Structural Strategic Deterrence: A Sand Table Simulation and Research Report on China's Military-Industrial Capability System against the United States Based on Rare Earth Supply Disconnection
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866913862135054336 |
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| author | Meng, Wei |
| author_facet | Meng, Wei |
| contents | This study proposes a systematic non-kinetic deterrence path modeling framework based on strategic rare earth supply cut-off, aiming to assess the strategic effects of China's export control policy against the United States at the military system level. The model adopts a four-layer structure of "policy input -- resource node -- equipment system -- capability output" and integrates path dependency modeling, degradation function design, and capability lag prediction mechanisms to form a strategic simulation system. The study incorporates graph neural networks and LSTM-based time series methods to dynamically evaluate the impact of rare earth supply disruption on key U.S. military platforms such as the F-35 fighter, nuclear submarines, and AI combat systems, identifying critical path nodes and strategic timing windows. Results indicate that a ten-year zero-tolerance policy on rare earth exports would lead to a significant technological disconnect between years 3 to 5 and a systemic capability lag between years 8 to 12, with an estimated average annual economic impact of 35 to 40 billion USD. These findings demonstrate that rare earth export cut-offs can serve as a structural strategic deterrent capable of disrupting deployment tempos without direct confrontation. The proposed model provides quantifiable and visualized tools for strategic decision-making and supports national-level security simulations and policy optimization research. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2505_21579 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Modeling the Path of Structural Strategic Deterrence: A Sand Table Simulation and Research Report on China's Military-Industrial Capability System against the United States Based on Rare Earth Supply Disconnection Meng, Wei Physics and Society 91A80, 91B62, 68T05 I.2.6; J.7; K.4.1; C.2.4 This study proposes a systematic non-kinetic deterrence path modeling framework based on strategic rare earth supply cut-off, aiming to assess the strategic effects of China's export control policy against the United States at the military system level. The model adopts a four-layer structure of "policy input -- resource node -- equipment system -- capability output" and integrates path dependency modeling, degradation function design, and capability lag prediction mechanisms to form a strategic simulation system. The study incorporates graph neural networks and LSTM-based time series methods to dynamically evaluate the impact of rare earth supply disruption on key U.S. military platforms such as the F-35 fighter, nuclear submarines, and AI combat systems, identifying critical path nodes and strategic timing windows. Results indicate that a ten-year zero-tolerance policy on rare earth exports would lead to a significant technological disconnect between years 3 to 5 and a systemic capability lag between years 8 to 12, with an estimated average annual economic impact of 35 to 40 billion USD. These findings demonstrate that rare earth export cut-offs can serve as a structural strategic deterrent capable of disrupting deployment tempos without direct confrontation. The proposed model provides quantifiable and visualized tools for strategic decision-making and supports national-level security simulations and policy optimization research. |
| title | Modeling the Path of Structural Strategic Deterrence: A Sand Table Simulation and Research Report on China's Military-Industrial Capability System against the United States Based on Rare Earth Supply Disconnection |
| topic | Physics and Society 91A80, 91B62, 68T05 I.2.6; J.7; K.4.1; C.2.4 |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.21579 |